“Joy” and “vibes” eventually need to meet reality, at least as far as presidential campaigns go.
You wouldn’t have been able to tell in Chicago this week, mind you. It was a practical love-fest for Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee managed to become the 2024 party standard-bearer without getting a single vote in the party primaries.
Speeches were happy-clappy — when, of course, there wasn’t fear-mongering about Donald Trump — and quite light on either policy or the bedrock realities of winning an election.
After Thursday night, however, that’s about to change in a big way.
According to KSAZ-TV in Phoenix, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has decided to voluntarily withdraw from the ballot in Arizona, amid reports the independent candidate is going to announce his withdrawal from the race on Friday.
Trending:
RFK Jr.’s campaign filed official paperwork with our office today withdrawing him from AZ’s 2024 election. That filling will be available on our website tomorrow at https://t.co/GsXDYD1kDY pic.twitter.com/JJTG9Q77Vx
— Arizona Secretary of State (@AZSecretary) August 23, 2024
Kennedy announced Wednesday that he planned to give a live address on Friday “about the present historical moment and his path forward.”
BREAKING: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will address the nation on Friday about the “present historical moment and his path forward” pic.twitter.com/sbYAgYLbZe
— ALX 🇺🇸 (@alx) August 21, 2024
Will Trump win?
Generally speaking, a candidate does not talk about their “path forward” if a viable one exists, so draw your own conclusions. NBC News reported that RFK will withdraw during the speech.
Kennedy initially drew double-digit support in polls, but faded as the campaign progressed, as third-party candidates are wont to.
However, RFK Jr. still held small but substantial support in swing states where the race will likely be close, including in Arizona.
Furthermore, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the RFK ticket — which includes Silicon Valley entrepreneur and lawyer Nicole Shanahan as his running mate — seeks to throw its lot in with the Trump campaign.
In an interview earlier this week, according to Newsweek, Shanahan “walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump” to prevent a Harris win.
It also comes after the Kennedy campaign attempted to meet with Harris’ people last week, according to The Washington Post — an overture that was rebuffed.
What would the shakeout from the move be? It depends on what poll you want to consult.
As CNBC noted, “Kennedy campaign officials repeatedly expressed a greater kinship with Trump’s operation than Harris’,” and likely would have peeled off more Trump voters disinterested with the GOP nominee than Harris voters who weren’t pleased with the Democrat standard-bearer.
However, as Newsweek noted, polls in swing states that eliminated third-party candidates showed Trump doing slightly worse than Harris if third-party candidates were eliminated. This might have something to do with Green Party nominee Jill Stein pulling votes from Kamala over the Biden administration’s support, albeit tepid, of Israel over Hamas in the Gazan war.
That being said, RFK giving full-throated support to Trump could change things yet again. How much so? We’ll have to wait for the next round of polls to come out if Kennedy pulls out and endorses the GOP nominee. The only thing we can be sure of is that it’s high time to get your popcorn ready.
