MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki on Tuesday analyzed polls between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump after their presidential debate — Biden isn’t leading in any of them.
There has been discord within the Democratic Party about how Biden should proceed following his poor debate performance, including considering how to replace him with a candidate more likely to defeat Trump. Kornacki on “Katy Tur Reports” said some Democrats may look at these polls with deep worry while others may be soothed by the fact that Biden is not particularly far behind Trump, even after the debate.
‘Biden Doesn’t Lead In A Single One’: MSNBC Data Guru Breaks Down Trump Surge In Post-Debate Polls pic.twitter.com/zzhh8ibJR6
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“These eight polls have all been conducted entirely after the debate, and these are the results from those polls. … I think you do see some clear patterns here,” Kornacki said.
“First of all, this one is obvious. Every poll since the debate has either had Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden or a tie in one case. And most of these polls have shown some kind of a movement toward Trump and away from Biden. … Not all of them, but you see a pretty clear pattern. So I think what you see here is a Trump lead here. If you average these all together, his lead on average … is 3.4 points in the post-debate polling. And movement from the previous polls, about two points. About a point and a half, two points of movement toward Trump since the debate.”
“It becomes a question for Democrats, how do you interpret that? Some Democrats might make the case that … ‘Look, this is still close. The bottom hasn’t fallen out. It’s not like Biden’s lost 10 points, 20 points. Something clear, something definitive.’ Democrats can say, ‘Hey, this is something that can be recovered from.’ On the flip side, other Democrats … would look at this and say, ‘The bottom line, Joe Biden does not lead in a single one of these polls,” he continued. “Joe Biden’s lost ground in most of these polls. And we live in a world where the margins are very thin in elections one way or the other, and a shift of a couple points may seem small, but it can be decisive. So some Democrats could look at these with just alarm, and others could look at them and say it hasn’t changed that much. It’s a matter of interpretation.”
CNN political director David Chalian warned on Monday the race is going to become more complex for Biden as Democratic-leaning states, such as Minnesota, Virginia and New Mexico become increasingly “competitive.”
“If that happens, that means more resources that Biden has to spend in a greater number of states than he’s currently spending. If the map expands against him, that’s not a position of strength heading into this fall campaign,” Chalian said.
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