As the 2024 presidential election is now less than five months away, President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects are in peril — even with demographics Democrats do not usually worry about losing.
Axios reported on an Equis Poll from Thursday showing Biden falling behind former President Donald Trump with Latino voters on who they trust more when it comes to immigration.
The poll asked 1,592 registered Latino voters in seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – “Who do you trust when it comes to immigration?”
The responses showed 41 percent trusted Trump more, with 38 percent trusting Biden more, and 16 percent said they trusted neither.
Additionally, the same poll found non-Hispanic voters also gave the edge to Trump as 49 percent chose Trump and 34 percent chose Biden with 14 percent saying neither.
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While immigration is certainly a problem, Axios reported the top issue for Latinos is inflation and the economy according to numerous Axios-Ipsos Latino Polls.
You couldn’t blame Democrats and the Biden campaign for complacently sitting on past victories with Latino voters, as recent history shows a disproportionate amount of support compared to their Republican counterparts.
According to America’s Society/Council for Americans, Hillary Clinton won 65 percent of the Latino vote in 2016 compared to Trump’s 29 percent. While that’s lower than former President Barack Obama‘s 71 percent in 2016, it still indicates that — at least back then — Democrat messaging resonated far better with that demographic than Trump’s.
The UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute found Latinos supported Biden by almost a three-to-one margin in California and New York, but also Colorado, Illinois, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2020.
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Biden also garnered support by a two-to-one margin or greater with Latinos in Georgia, Texas, Washington, and Florida outside Miami-Dade.
Clearly, something is amiss with Biden’s economic and border policies if Latino numbers are favoring Trump before heading into the November general election, but if polling data is to be taken wholeheartedly, conservatives can’t celebrate a complete reversal of fortunes.
Pew Research reported in April that fifty-two percent of Hispanic voters favor Biden while forty-four are with Trump. While Biden’s numbers are lagging behind Clinton and Obama’s turnout with that demographic, it’s still a lead over Trump.
It’s easy to become flustered with polls as numerous indicators exist favoring one candidate over another with this demographic or that one.
Anyone putting their trust entirely in them needs to only remember the months leading up to Trump’s victory over Clinton in 2016 as those numbers said something entirely different.
We should take polls with a grain of salt. They are but one piece of the puzzle in a very complicated and contentious election cycle.
Polls notwithstanding, in times of crisis and growing dissatisfaction, we can look to the historical record for some guidance as to how 2024 might unfold.
If a poor economy is looming over voters, for example, incumbents should be worried.
As President Andrew Jackson‘s successor and fellow Democrat, President Martin Van Buren had the misfortune of catching the bullet that was the Panic of 1837, a recession that led to the ascension of the Whig party to the White House for the first time in 1840 with the election of William Henry Harrison.
Americans also emphatically rejected incumbent President Herbert Hoover in 1932 while the country was in the midst of the Great Depression by choosing a New Deal from Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
While most economic minds wouldn’t consider the current economy to be in the state it was during those specific elections, Biden shouldn’t just be worried about how Latinos view his policies for the border and immigration.
He should be worried about them voting with their wallets.
