Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley must know something that no one else knows.
Despite a double-digit loss to former President Donald Trump in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, Haley told her supporters afterward that she would continue her campaign all the way to the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24.
“There are dozens of states left to go, and the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina,” Haley said in a clip C-SPAN posted to the social media platform X.
Nikki Haley: “I want to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory tonight…New Hampshire is first in the nation, it is not the last in the nation. This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go and the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.” pic.twitter.com/ZyEIYGrZWH
— CSPAN (@cspan) January 24, 2024
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Notwithstanding her syrupy paeans, the latest polls from the Palmetto State might leave a bitter aftertaste.
According to a poll conducted by the Tyson Group and reported Friday by The Messenger, Trump holds a commanding 27-point lead over Haley in South Carolina.
For perspective, a CNN poll published nearly three months ago showed Trump with a 31-point lead.
At that time, the Republican primary field featured a half-dozen or so serious candidates. Since then, of course, that field has narrowed to two.
Will Trump win South Carolina?
Meanwhile, aggregates have told the same story as individual polls.
For instance, polling averages from ABC News’ 538 dating back to Nov. 1, 2023, showed Trump with a 38-point lead.
Likewise, the latest RealClearPolitics average of polls, which includes the CNN poll, had Trump leading by 30 points.
RealClearPolitics also featured 13 different South Carolina polls dating to January 2023, when Trump led by only 15 points.
In other words, the former president has more than doubled his lead in the last 12 months.
Furthermore, the latest Tyson Group poll showed that Haley has received no meaningful boost in support from the winnowing of the primary field.
That should not surprise us.
After all, the former South Carolina governor has yet to exceed expectations but has pressed on nonetheless.
On Jan. 15, in fact, Haley finished third in the Iowa caucus behind Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.
DeSantis later withdrew from the race and endorsed Trump. Fourth-place finisher Vivek Ramaswamy did likewise.
Haley, however, moved on to New Hampshire, where she enjoyed substantial advantages but still suffered a clear defeat.
Ramaswamy has described Haley’s candidacy as a kind of Trojan horse, a last-ditch effort fueled by Democrats and funded by the Uniparty establishment in hopes of defeating Trump.
Meanwhile, since New Hampshire, Trump has turned up the heat on his only remaining rival, pressuring her to withdraw. Some donors have sent the same message.
In short, Haley has not yet come close to winning a caucus or primary. And the polls in her home state strongly suggest that on Feb. 24 that will not change. Pollsters make mistakes, but they do not make 30-point mistakes.
From Greenville to Hilton Head and everywhere in between, South Carolina Republicans have declared for Trump.
Thus, something more than sugary sweetness must be keeping her hopes alive.
