Late last week, no shortage of area dog walkers, birders and avid fishermen were a bit taken aback by the unusually low tides along the Peconic Bay shoreline. And their observations were spot on. According to U.S. Geological Survey station on Shelter Island, water levels were roughly 1.33 feet lower last week than the most recent lowest low on Jan. 28. Turns out, fears of an impending tsunami or mysterious sub-aquatic sinkhole were fortunately unfounded.
“It’s a natural phenomenon,” Peconic Baykeeper executive director Pete Topping said, noting the sustained 25 mph north and northwest winds that whipped across the East End over the previous few days, pushing the water out of the bay and offshore. Once those winds die down, Mr Topping said, water levels should return to normal.
And so they have. “We usually see these more extreme events in the wintertime or in the offseason,” he added.
So it should come as no surprise that the exact opposite extreme was on full display just over a year ago, when an usually high tide in early January 2024 left roads from Orient west to parts of Riverhead flooded at levels officials said exceeded those seen during Superstorm Sandy in October 2012.
Southold Town Highway Superintendent Dan Goodwin said in an interview last year that the extreme high tides no longer require a full or new moon or a major storm to flood streets and endanger homes.
“We can close off roads, we can pump out places, but there’s only so much we can do,” he said.
The underlying cause of the increased risk is rising global sea levels. According to the Environmental Protection Agency — currently headed by former District 1 U.S. representative Lee Zeldin — global sea levels, on average, have increased by 10 inches since 1880. As for the future, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported in 2022 that sea levels along the U.S. coastline are “projected to rise, on average, 10 to 12 inches in the next 30 years (2020 to 2050), which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years.” On the East Coast, the sea is rising by about one inch every three years, based on data from tide gauges and satellite altimeters.
The cause is climate change. In 2023, according to NOAA, the oceans soaked up nine to 15 more “zettajoules” of heat than in 2022. “One zettajoule of energy is roughly equivalent to 10 times the electricity generated worldwide in a year,” Cutchogue resident and adjunct professor of education at Long Island University Jack Gibbons told The Suffolk Times last year.“Absorbing that amount of heat causes thermal expansion of the oceans. As ocean waters warm, they expand slightly, lifting global sea levels.”
So while the “natural phenomenon” of extreme wind-generated low tides may come and go, the ongoing challenges of more frequent — and disruptive — extreme high tides are here to stay. That’s all the more reason the underlying cause — global warming — can no longer be ignored or denied, and local and federal officials, most notably Mr. Zeldin, must stand up to climate deniers and support the science that will hopefully lead to informed decisions and effective policies.
Or we can all head to the beach and bury our heads in the sand — before it gets washed away.