With a wave of vitriol cascading toward Israel from Tehran, fears are spiking that next to come will be a nuclear strike.
Although in theory, Iran agreed in a since-scuttled deal with the Obama administration not to develop a nuclear bomb, reports that emerged in 2022 said Iran had been trying to conceal banned activity that moved the country in the direction of joining the world’s nuclear club, according to the BBC.
Now that Iran says it will attack Israel after a leader of Hamas was assassinated in Tehran, fears that Iran completed the last step to being ready to possibly nuke Israel are running wild.
For example, a post on X proclaimed Iran has publicly announced for the first time that it has nuclear weapons. According to the tweet, Iranian Politician Ahmed Ardestani said, “We have obtained nuclear weapons, but we do not announce it.”
The truth is a little more nuanced (though still quite alarming) according to the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI).
In mid-May MEMRI examined Ardestani’s statements, which had been made on May 10, 2024.
MEMRI argued comments like Ardestani’s are “a series of statements by senior Iranian officials aimed at establishing in international public opinion the concept that Iran has nuclear weapons, or that Iran is entitled to them for deterrence as part of attaining a nuclear balance of terror vis-à-vis Israel and the U.S.”
“As an academic specializing in political strategy who is also a politician, he allows for plausible deniability aimed at letting the world know that Iran either has or should have nuclear weapons to offset Israel’s,” the MEMRI analysis read.
Going farther, MEMRI suggested Iran is “preparing international opinion for its announcement that it has a bomb, and in order to temper any opposition to this.”
Should Israel and the US act against Iran to prevent the development of a nuclear weapon?
The level of threat implied, the post read, is shown in a comment from Ardestani in which he said, “I believe that Iran’s becoming nuclear will gain gradual acceptance. As soon as you enter the nuclear club, they have to accept you. This deterrence [provided by possessing a nuclear weapon] makes the world realize that it respects Iran’s role. Now, the wisdom of the masses in America understands that Iran cannot be ignored.”
A Congressional Research Service report from March further noted that Iran did not, as of that time, have a nuclear weapon.
In July, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Iran is not believed to be ready to go nuclear, according to the Associated Press.
“I have not seen a decision by Iran to move” in that direction, he said.
“If they start moving down that road, they’ll find a real problem with the United States,” he said. Sullivan, however, did not discuss what that problem might be nor how the U.S. could effectively maneuver against Iran once it goes nuclear.
Some Israeli political leaders say Iran must be forcibly stopped from gaining a nuclear weapon, according to the Times of Israel.
Yisrael Beytenu party chairman Avigdor Liberman implied that a nuclear strike on Iran would be necessary, saying that “in this confrontation between Israel and the axis of evil, we must win — and without defeating Iran and destroying its nuclear program, we cannot beat either Hezbollah or Hamas.”
“In order to stop the Iranian nuclear program, which is already at weaponization stages, we must use all the tools at our disposal,” he said. “It must be clear that, at this stage, it is impossible to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons via conventional means.”
