Election analyst and statistician Nate Silver has released the latest results of his election prediction model.
While his earlier model for the election from June 26 had President Joe Biden as a 2:1 underdog against former President Donald Trump, his latest one putting Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris is much closer.
On Friday,the New York Post reported on Silver’s model from Thursday which shows that the election between Harris and Trump is now “a toss-up.”
Before sounding the alarms, let’s understand what Silver means by that. By his definition, this means each candidate has at least a forty percent chance of winning.
Specifically, Silver stated, “As of this afternoon’s model run, Harris’s odds had improved to 44.6 percent, as compared to 54.9 percent for Trump and a 0.5 percent chance of an Electoral College deadlock. It’s not exactly 50/50, but close enough that a poker player would call it a ‘flip’: Democrats have ace-king suited, and Republicans have pocket jacks.”
Silver also put Harris’ odds in swing states well within striking distance. He put her at a fifty-four percent chance of winning Michigan, a forty-seven percent chance of winning Wisconsin, and put her even with Trump in Pennsylvania – fifty-fifty.
Taking Silver’s model into consideration, the odds are still in Trump’s favor, but MAGA cannot sit on the sidelines.
There are two ways of looking at the polling as Harris appears a better candidate than Biden for the impending face-off with Trump.
Firstly, the honeymoon phase of her campaign may very well come to an end as enthusiasm could level out and excitement for a – supposedly – fierce nominee devolves into a dull roar.
Due to cheating, is it possible that Republicans could actually get more votes but still lose in November?
The other side of that coin is that Harris continues to gain momentum, and the odds put her even closer to Trump.
Conservatives who wish to never see Harris as president should – regardless – vote.
We know that her entire career as a public servant is an utter disgrace.
We know she is unprincipled, unlikeable, and totally incompetent.
That being said, we are sadly mistaken if we believe the average voter knows this too and will make the correct decision.
We must vote. We must encourage our friends, neighbors, and families to vote.
On November 9th, 2016, Pew Research reported that opinion polls and forecasters gave Hillary Clinton, “anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%” chance of defeating Trump.
In the wake of that year’s election, many Democrats sat stunned after months of indicators saying Clinton would prevail.
Polls are but one piece of the puzzle, enthusiasm and energy must remain high in favor of shunning complacency when your candidate is up or depression whey they are down.
