Statistician Nate Silver, a self-proclaimed liberal who has repeatedly said he doesn’t want former President Donald Trump to win, said Vice President Kamala Harris will likely lose in November.
“Harris is in much better shape than Biden,” Silver wrote Tuesday in his election forecast. “But she has one big problem. It’s the Electoral College.”
The data analyst said while Harris has a slight edge to win the popular vote, Trump has a bullish 61.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
In contrast, Harris has a 38.1 percent chance of an Electoral College victory.
Silver’s prediction model has Trump receiving 280 Electoral College votes versus 257 for his Democratic challenger.
Nate Silver has published his first election model update since the Kamala swap…
🔴 Trump – 61%
🔵 Harris – 38%Harris is now favored in the popular vote but still an electoral college underdog.
In my opinion, Nate is the best mainstream election forecaster in the game. pic.twitter.com/EKXE220XrJ
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) July 30, 2024
Last month, Silver had estimated Trump’s chances of victory at 65.7 percent based on 40,000 simulations run through his statistical prediction model.
While making his June forecast, Silver underscored that “I don’t want Trump to win the election, and I’d never consider voting for him.”
Will Kamala Harris lose?
However, he conceded: “The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden).”
Silver’s latest forecast shows that while the Democrats’ gambit of switching out Biden for Harris helped, she’s still on track to go down in flames.
“Harris will give Democrats a fighting chance,” Silver wrote. “In fact, she’s a slight favorite over Donald Trump in the popular vote, which Democrats have won in all but one election since 2000.”
He added: “However, she’s a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College, risking a repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections.”
What’s interesting is how small Harris‘ projected margin of victory in the popular vote over Trump is: 53.5 percent versus 46.5 percent
The meager 7-point margin is shocking, given the nonstop barrage of fawning media coverage of Harris, compared to the onslaught of negative coverage of Trump.
While it may be useful to read forecasts, it’s important to remember that polls and predictions don’t win races — especially in July — but fair elections do.
New Bombshells Are Coming Out About Georgia Election Fraud
FLASHBACK: Nearly 400,000 ballot images are missing from the 2020 Presidential Election in Georgia
Joe Biden won Georgia by only 11,779 votes
Georgia could not duplicate Election Day results with their recount pic.twitter.com/ME00vpwE9s
— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) July 30, 2024
This should be on the front page of every newspaper!!!
Election fraud
We have found out that only 2 Addresses were used for OVER 9000 Votes cast in 2020 in Georgia. pic.twitter.com/2lXymFmkgQ— JOSH DUNLAP (@JDunlap1974) June 27, 2024
Celebrating a positive poll result is like spiking the football because your team is ahead at halftime. It ain’t over ’til it’s over.
As long the potential for voter fraud goes unchecked, election predictions don’t amount to a hill of beans.
