As President Joe Biden’s re-election digs in against a rising tide of discontent in the Democratic Party and the establishment media, his campaign is casting a new eye on the figure who would have the best shot of replacing him.
The Biden campaign has commissioned polling to see how Vice President Kamala Harris would stack up against former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup, The New York Times reported Thursday.
It’s news that could come as a shock to Biden’s dwindling number of supporters. But the only real question is, what exactly is the campaign hoping to find?
Before the president’s disastrous debate performance June 27, the question wasn’t one the campaign would even deign to notice publicly. Biden’s coronation as the Democratic nominee was already assured by a party apparatus that destroyed even token opposition. (Hello, Dean Phillips!)
But at the end of Week 2 A.D. (after debate), the world looks considerably different.
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“The survey, which is being conducted this week and was commissioned by the Biden campaign’s analytics team, is believed to be the first time since the debate that Mr. Biden’s aides have sought to measure how the vice president would fare at the top of the ticket,” the Times reported.
“It was described by three people who are informed about it and insisted on anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information,” the report said. “They did not specify why the survey was being conducted or what the campaign planned to do with the results.”
Well, there are a couple of possibilities.
First, the Biden campaign could seriously be exploring whether Harris would make an electable stand-in for “the big guy” if the pressure on him to bow out gets irresistible. It might be trying to find out if the Democratic Party’s long-term interests would be best served by a Kamala candidacy.
Should Biden step down from the campaign and the presidency?
That would be foresighted, unselfish and mature, admirable even — at least from the Democratic point of view.
It would also be unlike pretty much anything Biden or his drifting family have demonstrated over the years since the 2020 election.
Does anyone seriously think Jill and Hunter will go for Joe stepping down? One loves the perks of her position, and the other might need his dad as president to get him out of prison with a pardon Joe claims he won’t give.
But hey, anything is possible. At the age of 81, Biden has to know he put his “three score years and ten” behind him more than half a score ago. He has to at least think about his legacy once in a while.
Another reason might be that the president’s campaign wants to know just how badly the vice president might fare against the presumptive Republican nominee.
Considering other polling that’s been done, it likely won’t help the case for replacing Biden with Harris.
As Forbes reported when surveying polls considering a Harris-Trump matchup, “Harris doesn’t fare much better against the former president, and in some cases, performs worse.”
She also polls better than other Democratic names being mentioned, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, according to Forbes.
So, what is Team Biden likely to get out of a poll comparing the president’s biggest internal rival against the former president every Democrat loves to hate?
At the moment, the numbers point to a finding that Harris is no stronger than Biden against Trump, and probably weaker. Also, it’s likely to find that she’s stronger than any of the other names mentioned so far.
A memo from Biden campaign chairwoman Jennifer O’Malley Dillon and campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez to Biden’s campaign staff appears to bear that out.
“In addition to what we believe is a clear pathway ahead for us, there is also no indication that anyone else would outperform the president vs. Trump,” they wrote.
“Hypothetical polling of alternative nominees will always be unreliable, and surveys do not take into account the negative media environment that any Democratic nominee will encounter. The only Democratic candidate for whom this is already baked in is President Biden.”
So, Biden campaign officials are eyeing Kamala Harris to see what they find.
Americans shouldn’t be surprised if they find her wanting.
