Viewers weren’t buying what President Joe Biden was selling on stage during Thursday night’s presidential debate.
Literally.
During the course of the 90-minute match between the president and presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump — in which even the liberal media would later acknowledge the president’s performance was so bad as to inspire “panic” among elected Democrats and those in Biden world — betting odds on the U.S. presidency on decentralized platform Polymarket shot up significantly in Trump’s favor.
Not only that, but the seemingly settled race for Democratic presidential nominee also opened up on the betting platform, with less than seven in 10 bettors saying Biden will walk away as the presidential standard-bearer at the Democratic National Convention this August.
In case you missed the trainwreck that was the debate, the earliest in presidential history, it was probably best summed by a response from Trump after a meandering Biden quote about border security that wasn’t even remotely factual: “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said, either.”
Trending:
Biden rambles.
Trump: “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence and I don’t think he knows what he said either” pic.twitter.com/a7YA0dCyef
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) June 28, 2024
This could more or less have been the answer to any number of Biden’s assertions during the 90-minute elder abuse session, in which the pallid incumbent, mouth sometimes agape, seemed to stare at the floor for words that weren’t there or answers that didn’t come. Brief moments of lucidity were only that: brief.
Even an establishment media generally devoted to excoriating Trump didn’t spend that much time doing the usual slanted fact-checks in post-debate analysis. Instead, the talk was dominated by just how bad what they’d just witnessed was for the sitting president — and what Democrats were saying about it.
Will Democrats now replace Joe Biden on the 2024 ticket?
MSNBC’s Joy Reid — a prime example of Trump Derangement Syndrome, if there ever was one — said that those she talked to all conveyed a sense “approaching panic.” CNN’s John King went further, saying there was “a deep, a wide, and a very impressive panic in the Democratic Party.” CNN’s Van Jones, who worked with Joe Biden and in the Obama administration: “It’s not just panic, it’s pain.”
CNN feels like Biden’s funeral
“It’s not just panic, it’s pain.” pic.twitter.com/h3MKtuiCcu
— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) June 28, 2024
And that Democratic pain could be felt deeply on Polymarket, where Trump — already the betting favorite — soared as the night went on.
It’s worth noting that before the debate, Trump was at 60 percent odds, with Biden at 34 percent and a variety of sundry other candidates in the single digits.
.@Polymarket – Presidential Election Winner
🟥 Trump: 60% (new high)
🟦 Biden: 34%
🟦 M. Obama: 3%
🟨 RFK Jr: 1%
——
Balance of power odds• Republican sweep: 46% (new high)
• Democratic sweep: 21%
• D Pres, R Senate, D House: 15%
• R Pres, R Senate, D House: 14%
• D… https://t.co/WXno3b6fDi pic.twitter.com/M2x18YewLi— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 27, 2024
After the debate? Trump was even higher, at 66 percent; Biden was lower, at 28 percent.
.@Polymarket Post-Debate Odds: Presidential Election Winner
🟥 Trump: 66% (new high)
🟦 Biden: 28%
🟦 Newsom: 4%
🟨 RFK Jr: 1%
—
Trends
• May 20: Trump +10
• May 30: Trump +15
• June 27: Trump +38https://t.co/kjkMVHlCVx https://t.co/hOPD4BJxcV pic.twitter.com/Iqz0Xb7msI— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 28, 2024
This makes Trump a more than 2:1 favorite.
Betting market PredictIt, which operates under a similar model, saw similar results, as many social media users reported. Before screenshot:
PREDICTIT RIGHT BEFORE THE DEBATE pic.twitter.com/1EtO24cZNc
— Comfortably Smug (@ComfortablySmug) June 28, 2024
After screenshot:
Newsom is about to surpass Biden on PredictIt
Biden is crashing pic.twitter.com/wlvCxT5Rv8
— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) June 28, 2024
What’s more, graphs displaying the odds change in real time were particularly stunning in just what the performance revealed:
Quite the visual of the pre-debate vs. post-debate betting odds on which party will win the 2024 presidential election–> (via @PredictIt) pic.twitter.com/8CPr1rxwH6
— Bryan Anderson (@BryanRAnderson) June 28, 2024
And, what’s more, there was suddenly a new market opening up: Whether Biden, whose nomination was never seriously questioned throughout the presidential primary season, would even be on the ballot come November.
The race for Democratic Nominee just opened up. pic.twitter.com/996iprK5Tn
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) June 28, 2024
Never seen a move like this on @PredictIt pic.twitter.com/3aS8CMXZ7K
— Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC) June 28, 2024
Now, of course, this would open up a whole different set of problems for Democrats.
Admitting that all of the talk about how of course Biden was sharp and all these misleading video clips were just “cheap fakes” and that any rumors of his senescence was all Republican hokum was all a lie. Any nominee who gets foisted into the role would have to explain why the Democratic Party played along with the notion the leader of the free world wasn’t senile when pulling him off the ticket is, in fact, an admission that he is.
However, eyes don’t lie, and markets don’t, either.
There’s no politics and no spin in transactional betting. The only thing that matters is being right. That’s why they’ve been more accurate than polls or punditry in the past: Because the only stake isn’t policy or getting your guy into office, it’s winning money. And that’s what makes this even more devastating to Democrats than Biden’s crash-and-burn on stage in Atlanta.
This can’t be brushed off as a 90-minute “cheap fake,” and now everyone knows the reality of our president’s profoundly diminished state.
You can bet on it.
