Former President Donald Trump has the political wind at his back, based on new polling published just ahead of Thursday night’s presidential debate.
A Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday found the Republican with a 4-percentage-point advantage over Democrat President Joe Biden, who led in a May poll released by the same firm.
In a head-to-head match, Trump led Biden 49 to 45 percent nationally among registered voters, as opposed to Quinnipiac’s May 22 survey, in which the president led Trump 48 to 47 percent.
When third-party candidates were thrown in the mix — including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, independent candidate Cornel West and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver — Trump’s lead increased to five points, with a final count of 43 percent to Biden’s 37 percent.
📊 NATIONAL POLL: Quinnipiac
🟥 Trump: 49% [+2]
🟦 Biden: 45% [-3]
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🟥 Trump: 43% [+5]
🟦 Biden: 37% [-4]
🟨 RFK Jr: 11% [-3]
🟩 Stein: 2% [=]
🟨 West: 2% [=]
🟪 Oliver: 1% [new][+/- change vs May]
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538: #19 (2.8/3.0) | 1,405 RV| 6/20-24https://t.co/4zsteM2lPe pic.twitter.com/ZIRQBiTzJ5— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 26, 2024
The poll also found that 55 percent believed Trump should not be sentenced to prison based on the guilty verdict rendered in the so-called New York hush-money case, while 40 percent think he should.
Not surprisingly, there was a significant party divide concerning the matter, though independents fell strongly in the no-prison-sentence camp.
“Republicans (92 – 4 percent) and independents (59 – 36 percent) think Trump should not be sentenced to prison based on this guilty verdict, while Democrats (79 – 17 percent) think he should be sentenced to prison,” Quinnipiac reported.
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The poll was conducted nationwide from June 20 to 24 with 1,405 self-identified registered voters. The margin of error was +/- 2.6 percentage points.
Quinnipiac’s findings were consistent with a New York Times/Siena College poll also published Wednesday.
The survey, conducted from June 20 to 25, found Trump with a 48 to 42 percent lead among registered voters and a 48 to 44 percent advantage with likely voters. A total of 1,226 registered voters participated in the poll.
Trump held a 1-percentage-point lead in April over Biden: 47 to 46 percent.
So a takeaway from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg securing a guilty conviction on Trump late last month is that it has not hurt the Republican’s candidacy, and arguably helped it.
Quinnipiac found the top issues that were important to voters included the economy, immigration, preserving democracy and abortion.
More than seven in 10 voters (73 percent) planned to tune into Thursday’s 9 p.m. Eastern Time debate on CNN, which was scheduled to be simulcast on Fox News and ABC. Several outlets planned to stream the event live on YouTube, according to Axios.
Fox News reported that the June 27 face-off would mark the earliest presidential debate in U.S. history.
It was slated to last 90 minutes and include two commercial breaks — another first. Normally the debates have run straight through.
Candidates have agreed not to consult with their staff during these pauses in the contest.
