When Fox News’ latest national presidential poll came out, Democrats rejoiced; for the first time in a year-and-a-half, President Joe Biden had the lead.
Now, mind you, Biden’s 50 percent to 48 percent lead is still within the margin of error, and Trump was only ahead by one point last month — but to online Democrats, it was proof that constant yammering about the economy combined with a kangaroo-court conviction for the opposition had worked. Happy days were here again!
And there it is. According to Fox News, Biden is now leading Trump in the latest national poll for the first time since the fall of 2023. pic.twitter.com/TiEHYo5cNB
— Brian Tyler Cohen (@briantylercohen) June 19, 2024
Unfortunately for the liberal punditocracy, like our podcaster friend Mr. Cohen, elections aren’t decided by a national vote. We have this thing called the Electoral College; you may have heard of it.
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It’s why, even though Biden was up by 7.2 points in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate in 2020, it took days to call the race. (It’s also worth noting that Biden’s actual margin of national aggregate vote victory was significantly less than what the polls indicated and that Trump has generally underperformed in the polls, but never mind.)
Thus, the key is whether or not Trump is winning the swing states and turning more states into swing states, not if he’s leading a national survey. And that’s why, while Cohen is doing a victory dance around his laptop over that single Fox News poll, another survey from the same outlet should have him and every Democrat concerned.
Trump is within single digits in New York state. Yes, liberal New York — where Biden won by 23 points in 2020 — now only has the president up 47 to 39 percent.
“The survey indicates that Biden’s lead has inched down from 10 points in April and 9 points in May,” Fox News reported Thursday.
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The poll, conducted with Siena College among 805 registered voters June 12-17, has a margin of error of 4.1 points.
“While Biden maintains the support of three-quarters of Democrats, Trump has support from 85 percent of Republicans and leads Biden 45-28 percent with independents,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg, according to Fox.
“A gender gap has reopened as men support Trump 46-42 percent and women favor Biden 51-33 percent. White voters are evenly divided. And while Biden has a commanding lead with non-White voters, Trump garners support from 29 percent of Black and 26 percent of Latino voters.”
Both candidates are underwater in terms of favorability — Biden at 42-53 percent unfavorable, Trump at 37-59 unfavorable — but several things are working to Trump’s advantage here.
First, despite the happy-clappy messaging Americans have been getting about the economy, this is still the lowest favorability that Biden has garnered in Siena College polling, according to Fox. Apparently, voters haven’t been getting the message that everything is all good for them.
Second, does this mean that Trump will carry New York? Let’s not get delusional here: Of course not. The last Republican to do it was Ronald Reagan 40 years ago, and while Joe Biden is weak, he’s not Walter Mondale weak.
However, the poll is indicative of a problematic trend in polling for Joe Biden: While he’s doing OK at the national level, he’s floundering in swing states and places you wouldn’t even expect him to.
Take, for instance, Virginia, where multiple recent polls have shown Trump and Biden tied. Trump’s campaign isn’t going to make a play for Virginia — but Biden and the Democrats will have to spend money there, both to preclude a shock presidential result and to help vulnerable down-ballot Democrats in a state with a lot of swing House seats.
The same thing is true in New York. Sure, Biden himself will likely win easily — but the same can’t be said for Democrats in suburban New York City and upstate districts who need the top of the ballot to perform well.
And, as for the rest of the swing-state map — while this isn’t Fox News’ polls, check out what Emerson/The Hill polling found across the states where the election will be decided:
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Emerson/The Hill
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 45% (+8)
🟦 Biden: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟨 West: 1%
—
MINNESOTA
🟥 Trump: 42% (+1)
🟦 Biden: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟨 West: 1%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 44% (+2)
🟦 Biden: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟨 West: 1%… https://t.co/AkQGtSPeIY pic.twitter.com/URwZ07CBpc— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024
Click on the “show more” button on the post below to get the bigger picture.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Emerson/The Hill
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 47% (+3)
🟦 Biden: 44%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+2)
🟦 Biden: 45%
.
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 46% (+1)
🟦 Biden: 45%
.
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+4)
🟦 Biden: 43%
.
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 45% (+4)
🟦 Biden: 41%
.
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 46%… pic.twitter.com/98qmVlw4R9— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024
In head-to-head polls, he leads in all six major swing states and is even tied in normally blue Minnesota. Throw other candidates into the mix and he’s leading in all.
But please, liberals. Do crow about that 2-point margin in the national poll by Fox News. I’m sure it’ll make all the difference in the world come November.
