Though the political landscape of Europe is much different than that of the United States, sometimes, political shifts in Europe have been indicative of political shifts America.
For instance, back in 2016, the United Kingdom shocked the world when voters rebelled against the left-wing establishment of the European Union and voted for Brexit.
After that, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential race by a wide margin.
Might something similar be happening in Europe again this year?
The Associated Press reported, heretofore reliably left-wing countries such as France and Germany saw stunning wins for their right-leaning parties in recent elections.
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In the parliamentary elections on Sunday, the usually left-wing EU saw a major shakeup as several European conservative parties won seats in the EU parliamentary elections.
In Italy, right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni gained more than double the amount of seats in the EU Parliament, and in Germany, the Alternative for Germany party “swept past” the left-wing Social Democrats.
French President Emmanuel Macron suffered perhaps the most crushing defeat when it came to the EU parliamentary elections.
According to AP News, Macron, noticing how much his right-leaning opponent, Marine Le Pen, was dominating the polls, decided to dissolve the parliament and call for new elections.
Does this signal good things for Donald Trump?
Unfortunately for Macron, the move backfired spectacularly, and Le Pen’s party won twice as many seats as did Macron’s party, spelling trouble for when his term ends in 2027.
To his credit, Macron accepted the defeat gracefully, telling the French people, “I’ve heard your message, your concerns, and I won’t leave them unanswered.”
Now, again, European politics function rather differently than American politics, but sometimes what happens across the pond can foreshadow political shifts at home.
For instance, as ABC News reported in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 election, the conservative victory of Brexit portended the conservative victory of Trump, in that it showed how ordinary voters had gotten fed-up with left-wing policies.
Much of the impetus for Brexit came from frustration with the EU’s lax immigration policies and punishing economical and trade regulations.
Likewise, Trump sailed to victory in 2016 thanks in part to many of the same frustrations, with even Trump referring to his campaign as “Brexit plus.”
As James Hartley, professor and chair of economics at Mount Holyoke College, told ABC, “The shock after both elections is a sure sign that the intellectual elites are completely isolated from half of the electorate.”
Could this rightward swing in the EU elections be signaling another Trump victory?
Hard to say — as the good folks on the social media platform X noticed, these European victories were at least heavily reminiscent of the Brexit phenomenon.
Brexit Trump vibes. https://t.co/ZFk3NQxDnc
— Cernovich (@Cernovich) June 10, 2024
And with Trump having been the victim of politically motivated lawfare from the Democrats, he might have an even better chance than he did in 2016.
Of course, no one can predict the outcome of any election with absolute certainty.
A Trump victory might be probable right now, but anything could happen between now and November.
At the very least, these EU elections represent a dissatisfaction with the current status quo in the Western world — the same as in 2016.
