History never actually repeats itself, but it sure does reveal some interesting patterns.
In an opinion piece published on Friday by Fox News, historian Craig Shirley, author of “Rendezvous with Destiny: Ronald Reagan and the Campaign That Changed America,” credited former President Donald Trump with following the same “genius” strategy that helped Reagan win New York state en route to a resounding victory over President Jimmy Carter in the 1980 presidential election.
In fact, Shirley described deep-blue New York as “ripe for picking by Trump in this fall’s election.”
A prolific author who once worked for Reagan, Shirley based his conclusion on recent polling. He cited, for instance, an Emerson College poll last week showing Biden with only a 7-point lead over Trump in New York.
And that revelation came on the heels of a Siena College poll in which Biden held only a 9-point lead.
For context, in the 2020 presidential election, Biden scored a 23-point victory over Trump in New York.
No Republican has won that state since Reagan’s historic landslide re-election victory over Democratic challenger Walter Mondale in 1984. Reagan won New York by 8 points that year. He also won California by 16 points and Connecticut by 22 points.
In other words, the country has changed in 40 years.
Nonetheless, as the Biden-led establishment works to transform the United States into a “1984“-style Orwellian dystopia — complete with censorship, perpetual war and persecution of political enemies — Shirley sees a tremendous opportunity for the presumptive GOP nominee.
Do you think Trump will win New York in November?
In fact, the historian identified meaningful parallels between Reagan’s 1980 presidential bid and Trump’s current campaign.
For instance, Reagan viewed New York as a chance to “expand the [electoral] map to achieve a mandate,” Shirley wrote. In light of polls coming from New York and other blue states, Trump has this same chance ahead of him.
Likewise, in 1980, the liberal Republican John Anderson ran as an independent. In New York, Anderson earned nearly 468,000 votes. Reagan, meanwhile, won the state by a relatively narrow 165,000-vote margin.
Anderson, therefore, played the spoiler role that could go to independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. this fall.
Moreover, as a former Democrat with a strong anti-Communist message, Reagan appealed to millions of Americans regardless of party affiliation. Trump, also a former Democrat, has denounced authoritarian elites and led a successful working-class insurgency from within the Republican Party.
One can hardly imagine any president this side of James Buchanan sowing more disastrous chaos than Biden has, but by 1980, Carter had come close. Inflation, American hostages in Iran and a Soviet invasion of Afghanistan all testified to the failure of the sitting Democratic president, Shirley observed.
Furthermore, Reagan actively campaigned in New York City, including the South Bronx. Last month, Trump held his own South Bronx rally that helped illustrate his growing support among black and Hispanic voters.
In sum, Shirley found meaningful parallels that bode well for Trump in November.
“Now Trump is wisely taking a page out of the Reagan playbook,” the historian wrote, “campaigning in non-traditional areas, staying on offense, keeping Biden on defense, making new news, raising the morale of his campaign, lowering the morale of Biden’s campaign and paving the way to an historic win in this fall’s election.”
1980 ALL OVER AGAIN? “The people empathize with Trump and are lining up against Biden.” Read Craig Shirley’s full piece on the parallels between Reagan’s historic victory and the 2024 election: https://t.co/UGM41bVA6L pic.twitter.com/0vpseAiJcj
— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 7, 2024
History might never actually repeat itself, but for the purposes of prediction we have nothing else to guide us.
Let us pray, therefore, that Shirley knows the future as well as he knows the past.
