The initial 2024 presidential election forecast from Decision Desk HQ gave former President Donald Trump cause for celebration.
The first forecast, released on Wednesday, indicated Trump has a 58 percent chance at winning in November’s presidential election, according to current models, with President Joe Biden’s odds of victory at 42 percent.
The forecast categorizes Electoral College votes as either “safe,” “likely” or “leaning” toward one candidate. If the candidates are too close to determine a winner, the votes are categorized as “toss up.”
DDHQ currently has Trump slated to win 235 electoral votes against Biden’s 226. That leaves 77 electoral votes, and the presidency, up for grabs.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the six toss-up states. DDHQ currently predicts that Trump will win all but Michigan, which leans slightly in Biden’s favor. In this scenario, Trump would win 297 electoral votes compared to Biden’s 241.
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However, because the toss-up races are so close. DDHQ’s current Electoral College prediction is more cautious, with Trump winning 282-256 over Biden.
With less than 6 months to Election Day, President Joe Biden’s re-election prospects are weaker than his party would like them to be. Our initial 2024 forecast gives Donald Trump a 58% chance of winning the presidency.
Check it out here: https://t.co/QJZskjwXfD
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) May 29, 2024
The forecast is a welcome sign for the Trump campaign. A reputable election source, DDHQ’s prediction is not one to be looked over.
Will Donald Trump win the election by a large margin?
Its final 2020 election forecast was fairly accurate, predicting Biden would defeat Trump 318-220 in the Electoral College, only slightly off of the final tally of 306-232.
However, DDHQ did swing and miss on a few predictions. It predicted that Biden would take Florida and North Carolina, both of which went to Trump. Other than that, the models were pretty spot on.
Yet, whatever optimism the Trump campaign feels should be cautioned. After all, there’s still over five months until Americans go to the ballot boxes in November.
And if the last two election cycles have taught us anything, it’s that a surprise immediately before the election (think the James Comey investigation into Hilary Clinton and the suppression of Hunter Biden’s laptop) is not out of the question.
Still, this model shows discontent with the Biden administration’s governance over the last three years, to the point where Americans are likely to replace him with arguably the most polarizing and ridiculed president in American history.
It’ll be more interesting to see how the forecast changes after Trump and Biden square off in the first presidential debate on June 27, hosted by CNN.
The first meeting since the final 2020 presidential debate almost four years ago is sure to produce fireworks, as both men have more ammunition than ever against each other thanks to the last four years.
Trump will surely attack Biden’s economic failures, foreign policy disasters, open border policies, and energy records, while Biden will pound Trump over the abundance of legal issues the former president has faced since leaving office.
At the same time, both Trump and Biden have been in the public spotlight for so long that it’s hard to imagine large swaths of the public changing their opinion on either man at this point.
Nonetheless, the election is far from over, and the path to the White House is paved with little room for errors. However, if the status quo remains unchanged, Trump could very well end up back in the White House.
