The old maxim attributed to Mark Twain, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” certainly appears to be true when comparing this year’s presidential election to the election of 1968.
There are at least six parallels, and taken together, they all bode well for former President Donald Trump as he looks to return to the White House with a win in November.
Unpopular Democratic Incumbent
Both elections share a very unpopular Democrat incumbent president with poll numbers brought down in part by anti-war sentiment.
Gallup reported last week that Joe Biden has the lowest poll rating at this point presidency than any of his predecessors going back to Dwight Eisenhower, with a 38.7 percent.
President Lyndon Johnson’s approval rating in March 1968 was 36 percent, but he had been in office longer, having served the last year of John F. Kennedy’s term.
Seeing the writing on the wall, Johnson made a surprise announcement on March 31, 1968, that he would not seek another four years.
It would fall on Johnson’s vice president, Hubert Humphrey, to be the Democratic torchbearer in 1968, and there was no separating himself from the administration’s record regarding the Vietnam War.
Anti-War Protests
Just as anti-Vietnam War protests rocked the nation in 1968, pro-Palestinian, pro-Hamas, and anti-Israel protesters have been disrupting, occupying and in some cases vandalizing college campuses across the nation in response to the Israel-Hamas war. More on this momentarily.
UCLA 🚨: CHP has taken control of about 90% of the encampment area, mass arrests made of those who remained behind. A last stand is looking to unfold with makeshift barriers and remaining protestors. pic.twitter.com/pkoLExV7I1
— Anthony Cabassa (@AnthonyCabassa_) May 2, 2024
Robert F. Kennedy in the Race
In both 1968 and now, a Robert F. Kennedy is running to be president. Back then, it was former Attorney General and then-U.S. Sen. Robert F. Kennedy.
RFK’s bid to be president was cut short by an assassin’s bullet. Palestinian immigrant Sirhan Sirhan shot Kennedy over his support for Israel, particularly in the aftermath of the 1967 Six -Day War. Sirhan killed Kennedy on the one year anniversary of the conflict.
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., RFK’s son, is a candidate in this year’s contest.
Third Party Candidate Who May Swing the Outcome
In this election cycle RFK Jr. is running as an independent, third-party candidate after initially running in the Democratic primary against Biden.
Many political pundits believe RFK Jr.’s presence in the race will make it difficult for Biden to win in the general election.
The Real Clear Polling average shows Kennedy garnering 10 percent of the vote, with the race favoring Republican Donald Trump more with RFK Jr. in the contest.
The 1968 election also featured a Democrat-turned independent: former Alabama Gov. George Wallace.
Wallace won approximately 13 percent of the vote and actually carried his home state in the general election along with Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana.
The race marked the last time a third party candidate won Electoral College votes.
Republican Nominee Who Previously Lost
The 1968 presidential election included a Republican candidate who had previously run and lost, as Trump did in 2020. He won in 2016, of course.
Richard Nixon was the GOP nominee in 1960, losing narrowly to John Kennedy. Nixon had been vice president at the time, serving in the Eisenhower administration.
A Gallup poll published in May 1968 had Nixon up 39 to 36 percent over Humphrey. Nixon would go on to win the race handily in the Electoral College (301 to 191), although by just about 800,000 in the popular vote.
Now in May 2024, Trump is slightly ahead of Biden nationally, by about one percent, according to the 538 average of polls. Trump has bigger leads in some of the key swing states.
The Real Clear Polling Electoral Map — based strictly on who’s ahead in surveys of each state, no matter how close — has Trump defeating Biden 312 to 226.
New Reuters poll released yesterday shows Trump leading Biden in 7 swing states, by an average of 6 pts.
This map shows how Trump will win a landslide in the Electoral College, if the numbers hold true.
Trump 312, Biden 226 pic.twitter.com/yU9M1y3PVW
— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) September 16, 2023
Democratic Convention In Chicago
The Democratic National Convention was held in Chicago in 1968, and it is slated to take place there again this year.
Many feel the scenes of chaos brought by anti-Vietnam War protesters near the convention lost Democrats the race.
There are expected to be protests in Chicago at the convention in August, too, CBS News reported.
#OTD 1968, demonstrators & Chicago police clashed at Grant Park during the Democratic National Convention. #History pic.twitter.com/Xv34iVmi8R
— Miller Center (@Miller_Center) August 29, 2017
MSNBC, never-Trumper host Joe Scarborough sees the parallels to 1968.
“I can tell you the riots on college campuses, the riots at the Chicago convention in ’68, all of those things moved my family from being Democrats their entire life to being Republicans,” he said Thursday.
“I remember my parents asking, ‘What in the world is going on in this country?’” Scarborough recounted.
“If you’re offended by this, please, I’m trying to help you. I don’t want Donald Trump to get elected. Alright? I’m trying to help you. If you’re too stupid to figure that out, you can change to another channel because we’re sorting through this as a country, and this is not helping,” he said.
Joe Scarborough Blasts MSNBC Viewers ‘Too Stupid’ To See Campus Protests Hurting Biden’s Reelection: ‘Change to Another Channel’
“If you’re offended by this, please, I’m trying to help you. I don’t want Donald Trump to get elected. All right? I’m trying to help you. If you’re… pic.twitter.com/z853QIZicj
— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) May 2, 2024
The Wall Street Journal ran a story Wednesday titled, “Biden Needs to Learn From the Democrats’ Disaster in ’68.”
In it, Humphrey biographer James Traub argued that the conventional wisdom regarding why Democrats lost the 1968 election is wrong. It was not because Humphrey did not come out strongly against the Vietnam War.
“Disaffected liberals ultimately came back, but disaffected blue-collar voters, who largely supported the war and abhorred the chaos in the streets, defected to Nixon or to George Wallace,” Traub wrote.
Trump is positioning himself, much as Nixon did in 1968, as the law-and-order candidate.
On Thursday, he commended the police departments in New York and Los Angeles for breaking up campus occupations at Columbia University and the University of California, Los Angeles.
“These are radical left lunatics, and they’ve got to be stopped now, because it’s going to go on and on, and it’s going to get worse and worse,” he said.
At a campaign event in Wisconsin on Wednesday, Trump said, “To every college president, I say remove the encampments immediately, vanquish the radicals, and take back our campuses for all of the normal students who want a safe place from which to learn.”
President Trump calls out college presidents amid nationwide campus protests:
“To every college president I say remove the encampments immediately, vanquish the radicals, and take back our campuses for all of the normal students who want a safe place from which to learn.” pic.twitter.com/LEPUTOR2BU
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) May 1, 2024
President Joe Biden, after several days of not forcefully addressing the issue, spoke from the White House on Thursday, saying, “There’s the right to protest, but not the right to chaos.”
But he did not announce any action the federal government would be taking to help restore order, even though federal laws against discrimination toward Jewish students and espousing support for terrorism have been broken, Republican lawmakers have contended.
On April 22, Biden repeated a reporter’s question back to her regarding the protests, saying he does condemn “anti-Semitic protests,” but he added, “I also condemn those that don’t know what’s going on with the Palestinians.”
The White House had released a similar on-the-one-hand, on-the-other-hand statement the day before.
History is Rhyming
The parallels between ’68 and this year are truly astounding: unpopular Democrat incumbent, anti-war protests, Robert F. Kennedy, third party candidate who may swing the final outcome, GOP candidate who previously lost, and a Chicago Democratic convention.
History appears to be rhyming, and that bodes well for Trump.
