As Republican voters have learned, to their dismay, party affiliation does not always matter when it comes to elected representatives. In Congress, for instance, “Republican” and “Democrat” often convey little more than the illusion of difference.
For gauging the electorate’s mood, however, voter registrations — particularly when measured in the tens of thousands — can prove useful.
According to statistics provided by the Arizona Secretary of State, registered Republicans now outnumber registered Democrats in the anticipated swing state by a margin of 242,777.
A total of 1,434,982 Arizona voters have registered as Republicans as of this month compared with 1,192,205 Democrats. That gives Republicans an overall advantage of nearly 6 percent (35.36 percent to 29.38 percent).
For comparison’s sake, according to the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, on Election Day 2022, the GOP held an advantage of roughly 166,000 registered voters. And in 2020, the Republican advantage stood at roughly 130,000.
Of course, independent voters often swing elections one way or the other.
In 2020, for instance, despite the Republican advantage, Arizona certified its election for Joe Biden. Fewer than 11,000 votes separated Biden and then-President Donald Trump, according to the official results.
A 2020 CNN exit poll showed that Arizona’s independents broke for Biden over Trump, 53 percent to 44 percent.
Likewise, regardless of party affiliation, self-described “moderates” overwhelmingly favored the Democratic nominee, 67 percent to 32 percent.
Will Trump win Arizona in November?
In other words, the vast middle of the Arizona electorate helped deliver the current tragicomic spectacle of a Biden administration.
On that front, however, the new voter registration data brought more good news for the GOP.
Republicans now hold a 65,000-voter advantage over independents, according to the state’s registration totals.
Coupled with the net gain of more than 110,000 registered Republicans compared with Democrats since 2020, that likely spells good news for Trump in this fall’s electoral rematch with Biden.
Furthermore, voter registrations supported recent polling data.
According to the latest RealClearPolling average of polls — all conducted since March 7 — Trump holds a solid 5-point lead over Biden in Arizona. That included a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll from early April that showed the Republican with a 7-point lead.
By contrast, an early April poll from KSTP/SurveyUSA showed Biden with a narrow 2-point lead in Minnesota.
Yet RealClearPolling lists Arizona among its expected battleground states while excluding Minnesota. In 2020, the Gopher State certified a 7-point Biden victory over Trump, 52.4 percent to 45.3 percent, which could explain the prominent polling aggregator’s reluctance to move Minnesota into the battleground category.
Finally, Arizona was not alone in delivering good news on the voter registration front.
In Florida, for instance, the Republican advantage over Democrats has reached nearly 900,000. Biden’s delusions to the contrary notwithstanding, that former battleground state now appears to be solid red.
On the whole, while it remains difficult to draw definitive conclusions from either voter registrations or polling data, the combination of the two certainly paints a bright red picture in Arizona.
