Stories are conflicted, but news reports say Iran is about to attack Israel.
Other reports say they were hinting at it, but have stood down.
What’s going on?
Friday morning, CBS said an attack against Israeli military installations was imminent and was in retaliation for Israel’s destruction earlier this month of the Iranian embassy in Syria.
The Iranian attack could include drones, cruise missiles and perhaps ballistic missiles, CBS said.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, President Joe Biden voiced “ironclad” support of Israel, according to NBC.
“As I told President Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad,” Biden said.
Will Iran directly attack Israel?
The situation is clouded in mystery, but the threats apparently began as the Iranian state news bureau posted on social media platform X that the Iranians were suspending air action in Tehran’s airspace as a result of “military maneuvers,” Y-net News said.
Also, on X they showed a video of missiles with a caption “Maybe tonight … Stay tuned.”
Then — poof! — the posts were deleted.
There were some reports that pressure from the United States caused Iran to stand down from its saber-rattling against Israel, according to The Wall Street Journal and Y-net News.
It just so happens this week that U.S. Middle East envoy Brett McGurk sent word to Iran indicating 1) U.S. support for Israel and 2) the Israelis might retaliate against an Iranian attack.
In addition to support for Israel expressed by McGurk and Biden, a similar pledge came from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Y-News said.
Israeli officials interpreted the statements by Biden and Blinken as earlier indications of Iran backing away from its apparent earlier threats.
Iran wants to avoid a regional war, including direct conflict with the U.S.
As a result, an attack on Israel could lead to a direct attack on Iran by Israel and perhaps the U.S., according to Y-News, which noted close coordination between the Israeli and U.S. military.
But a sense of an ongoing threat remains, with the U.S. warning Americans in Israel to restrict their movements as a result of a possible attack.
Like so many things in the Middle East, reports, threats, revenge, bullets and rockets go back and forth.
If, indeed, Iran decided and continues to decide not to follow through on its threats, it may be as a result of U.S. commitment and influence.
Many bristle at the thought of the role of the U.S. as the world’s policeman. And there’s a lot of debate on how that role should be played out.
But given the power of some of the participants (including a nuclear Iran), and how technology continues to shrink the world, America as a sort of island once protected by two oceans is a memory that is most distant.
