The Major League Baseball season is off and running. Opening Day was March 28, and the season is about six months long. So, do the current standings mean anything or are they just a snapshot in time?
A glance at the National League West standings shows the Dodgers with a record of 6-2, the Pirates at 5-0 and the Braves at 3-2. Will any of these teams make it to the World Series? It is impossible to know. However, it is a good bet that at least two will make it to the playoffs. So, yes, the standings do mean something.
When it comes to the 2024 presidential election, it — like the MLB — culminates in the fall. So, do the current polls mean anything? They certainly can’t predict a winner at this point — the last two elections have shown that polls can be way off — but they are valuable in showing who’s hot at the moment and who’s lagging.
When it comes to the crucial battleground states that could well determine the elections, the polls are looking good for former President Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee.
According to a new Wall Street Journal poll, Trump is ahead of Biden in six out of seven of the most competitive states. The poll found voters are increasingly motivated by growing doubts about Biden’s ability to lead and consternation about the economy.
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Biden in six of the seven most competitive states in the 2024 election, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds. https://t.co/3pyGnzL2kO https://t.co/3pyGnzL2kO
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) April 3, 2024
Trump’s lead isn’t enough for him to sit on his laurels. He holds between a 2 and 8 percentage point lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina on a test ballot that includes third-party and independent candidates. On a ballot that lists just Trump and Biden, Trump holds similar leads.
Biden leads by 3 points in Wisconsin on a multiple-candidate ballot. Biden and Trump are tied in a head-to-head matchup.
Will Trump actually win 6 of 7 swing states as this poll suggests?
Even leftist mouthpiece MSNBC had to admit Biden is in trouble, though they did play on the “snapshot” nature of polls and tried to shift the focus to the good news about Wisconsin and a bait and switch about the economy.
MSNBC is right about one thing, if the voter perception of the economy improves dramatically before the election, it very well could impact the election.
At this point in the game, two more states are considered in play. Nevada had a bit of controversy last time around when Biden won, but Democratic margins have narrowed. Trump won in North Carolina in 2020 by a razor-thin margin.
Trump and Biden carry some skeletons from the closet into the race, but voters see Biden, a living skeleton, as the worst of the two. When prompted to choose the candidate who has the physical and mental wherewithal to handle the White House, 48 percent picked Trump and 28 percent chose Biden.
Biden appears to be having a hard time holding onto voters, with support among Black, Hispanic and young voters on the decline. A decline in this voter pool could doom Biden’s re-election bid because his path to winning depends on a diverse pool of voters in battleground states, according to the Journal.
Negative views of Biden’s job performance outweigh the positive by at least 16 percentage points in the poll. In four of the states, Biden’s negative job score outgunned a favorable look by 20 points. On the flip side, Trump got an unfavorable job rating in only one of the seven battleground states — Arizona.
The poll was conducted March 17-24 and surveyed 4,200 voters, 600 in each of the seven states. The margin of error was plus or minus 1.5 percentage points for the full sample and 4 points for results in individual states.
The polls in the 2024 presidential race are like current MLB standings. Someone who bet the farm on the to-date undefeated Pirates going all the way and winning the World Series would be crazy. Is there a chance they could do it? Yes, but there are too many variables in play to make that kind of prediction. It would be a fool’s bet.
Betting that Trump will win the election based on a single poll when there is still over half a year left in the political season would be a bad idea, too. What the poll should do is motivate Trump supporters to get to the polls to come election time by whatever means at their disposal — so long as it is legal.
In close games, a team depends on all of the players to step up to the plate and swing the bat. If they don’t bring the best game, the team will lose. It’s that simple.
Presidential elections, to continue the sports analogy, are won by the voters because they are the players. So get out and vote.
