Political campaign strategists base the vast majority of their decisions on number crunching and hard analysis of past elections. But any strategist worth his salt will tell you they truly earn their living, and their reputation, by ferreting out the unique situations that are a part of every election and reacting accordingly.
As all of that applies to the epic rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, it’s really a matter of where to begin, according to political strategist Louis Perron, Ph.D. To be sure, labeling this election as “unique” amounts to a colossal understatement.
Perron ought to know. He’s an acclaimed Switzerland-based political scientist and consultant who’s won elections for politicians around the globe, from mayors to presidents and vice presidents. He’s also a frequent commentator and TEDx speaker. And this year he literally wrote the book on the matter, “Beating the Incumbent: Proven Strategies and Tactics to Win Elections” (Radius Book Group).
For one thing, “we have a situation where it’s sort of incumbent versus incumbent,” Perron told The Western Journal in an exclusive telephone interview. For another, there are the swing voters who have “a very negative view of both candidates — the so-called double-haters.”
Double-haters, by and large, come from the much-coveted demographic of independents. “And those are the people who will ultimately decide the election,” Perron emphasized.
But there are several other key demographics in play, as well as glaring issues Perron believes each candidate can exploit — including respective records and legal woes — that will determine the outcome of an election he predicts will ultimately be “very close.”
Here’s Perron’s expert breakdown of the election of the century:
TWJ: Is this Donald Trump’s election to lose?
Perron: Yes. As I write in the book, elections with an incumbent are a referendum on the incumbent. And if the incumbent is not vulnerable, it’s difficult for a challenger to even come into play. And here we have a situation where the incumbent is of course vulnerable.
I’m not saying this because of polls right now where Biden is behind by 2.8 to 3 points. That really doesn’t matter. What matters is the underlying dynamics. What I mean is that people are very unhappy with how things are going. He has low job approval, so he’s vulnerable, and that’s why I say that it’s Trump’s to lose.
OK, if it’s his election to lose, how could he let it slip away?
The main point is that he has to make sure it stays and remains a referendum on the incumbent. And I think that’s a challenge for him because, by the very nature of his personality, it’s always about him.
If we just look at the news cycles over the past week, we’re talking about comments of his, about the “bloodbath” comments, and these are just examples of making it about himself instead of keeping the focus on Biden.
Are you saying that his frankness and his social media posts hurt him more than help him?
It may help with the base. But remember, the base was there in 2020, and he still lost. It doesn’t help with those who will ultimately decide the election, which are independents. While there are less of them than 20 years ago in the U.S., they are still the ones who will decide the election. And in this case, the swing voters have a very negative view of both candidates — the so-called “double-haters.”
Can you elaborate on the double-haters?
One of the big changes compared to four years ago is that Joe Biden actually had a net-positive capability rating, which, given the circumstances, was quite an accomplishment for him at the time. Now, people see Biden as negatively as they see Trump. So the double-haters really have to choose the lesser of two evils here.
And that’s why I say that if the focus is on Trump, Biden will win. If the focus is on Biden, Trump will win. The reason Trump is doing better than ever in the surveys is because the focus is currently on the incumbent.
Will you vote for Trump?
What does Trump have to do to win with independents?
There are some situations — for example, in some state or local elections — where you just win with the base. But in most cases it is not enough to win. You need to reach out in a meaningful way. And I think in this case, the double-haters have big reservations about both candidates.
I would say in the case of Trump, it’s not just that they don’t agree with him or don’t like him; it’s that they are really scared of him and some of the things he might do. So what people are looking for is what we call “permission structure” — in other words, cues that tell them, “Hey, you know, taking a second or third look at the guy, he’s not all that bad. It’s OK to vote for him.”
That’s what he needs to do. For example, about Jan. 6 or abortion or Trump’s character issues, they are looking for permission to vote for him.
Can you give me an idea of how many of these double-haters there are?
Well, we don’t really know because people lie to pollsters all the time. They lie to their family, especially about Trump — you know, the “hidden Trump voter.”
I think at the moment I would say that probably 80 percent of people have more or less firm opinions about both candidates and are not open to switching. I would say that there are only a very small number of people who are really up for grabs. Hence why it will be a very close election.
What do you predict the percentage gap will be? Will it be 5 percent? Three percent?
I think it will be a close election. It may not be that close in the Electoral College, but I think it will be a close collection.
It’s so early. We don’t know how the economy will be built on paper. We don’t know how the actual campaign will play out, who will show up to vote, what the debate will be over Ukraine and Gaza. We don’t know how third-party candidates will affect the race, most importantly with respect to the Electoral College. I think what the polls tell us now is that it’s a close race.
In 2020, single white women, who tend to lean left, played a significant role in getting Biden elected. Do you think they’ll play the same role this time?
Yes, they are certainly a key demographic to look at. But there’s a new gender gap with single men going the other way. Think of the general trend, not only in the U.S. but actually in Europe, where there is this backlash against the left and a counter-trend with men being fed up and reacting to it by voting for the right.
I would like to emphasize that for all the talk about people getting more educated and the new Democratic majority and minorities increasing, which is all happening, we shouldn’t forget that white, non-college-educated men and women are still by far the largest demographic in America. Hillary [Clinton] lost because she made it an explicit point to ignore that part of the electorate, which just happened to be the biggest one.
Polls are showing more black men than ever are moving toward Trump. And they’re also showing that he’s made significant gains with Hispanics. What do you attribute that to?
I would like to differentiate between the two.
With Hispanics, that’s another miscalculation Democrats make — to assume that Hispanics, by definition, will vote for Democrats, which they don’t. Actually, the longer they’ve been in the U.S., the less they vote for Democrats. So the Hispanic vote, while growing, is actually getting more diversified and up for grabs. For example, they may care more about the economy than about immigration. So that’s the case with Hispanics.
I think black men overwhelmingly voted for Biden, but if I were to look at the polls from his [point] of view, I would be very worried about it. I think black men are up for grabs for Trump. He doesn’t need to win the majority of them and he never will. But if he can just cut away from Biden’s margin, that could be an interesting part of the equation. But in both cases there needs to be serious outreach effort.
What do you believe are Trump’s biggest vulnerabilities?
Well, there is the big short-term vulnerability for him of fundraising. He needs to raise money. Joe Biden has $100 million cash on hand, and he will use that to hit Trump.
The only way Biden can win this is by making this a binary choice and by saying, “You may not like what you have, but boy, don’t take the risk going for something you don’t know.” This is the strategy by which Barack Obama won re-election; it’s the strategy by which George Bush won re-election. It’s how vulnerable incumbents mount a counteroffensive — by attacking their opponents early in the game when they don’t have money and are just coming out of the primary.
And that’s exactly where we stand now, so get ready for a barrage of negative ads against Trump. I’m not sure if [Trump’s campaign] fully grasp what’s about to hit them. They need to raise money to be able to defend themselves on TV now.
What is Trump’s war chest at right now?
I think he has about half as much cash on hand as Biden, and that’s really an issue.
I think if the ratio is more than 1 to 2, then fundraising really becomes a key factor in the race in terms of TV and allowing you to play offense on the Electoral College map. You can win with less money. But if the ratio is more than 1 to 2, that’s really a factor in the campaign in my experience.
Am I wrong in thinking that Trump is not going to enjoy the same sort of free airtime, which was estimated at $1 billion in 2016 and about half that in 2020, this time around?
Absolutely. I mean, we have a situation where it’s sort of incumbent versus incumbent, whereas at the time in 2016, he was a new phenomenon that people wanted to talk about.
And I write about this in the book: One of the biggest advantages challengers have is they’re the new kid in town, so journalists are interested to find out what they have to say. It’s somewhat of a vulnerability, but it’s also a great opportunity. Now, nobody cares about the story of Donald Trump unless it’s his legal problems or something controversial.
They know everything they need to know about him already.
Yes, and I’m afraid such coverage will be negative and controversial. And again, I think the spotlight should be on Joe Biden.
Something I write about in the book is that you really need to prosecute an incumbent. [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy, for example, in Ukraine was a comedian and a newcomer. And there was this debate at the time with [Petro Oleksiiovych] Poroshenko, who was the incumbent. And Zelenskyy basically said, “Mr. President, I’m not your opponent; I’m your verdict.” In other words, don’t let the incumbent get away with blaming the state of things on someone else.
And that’s something Biden continues to do now. He’s flung open the border and is letting people come in by the millions. He can fix that with a stroke of a pen, and he keeps saying it’s Trump’s fault, right?
Yes, and I don’t think that will fly with voters.
I think Barack Obama did a very good job of blaming the economy on George Bush at the time, but I don’t think Biden can repeat this with immigration because immigration really is the secret weapon of the right in the U.S., in Europe and in many other places. Immigration is an issue where the left really can’t think straight, where they can’t even acknowledge the issue — where they are divided themselves.
I’d like you to elaborate on that since the border is a major concern of voters.
If you look at the immigration issues, whether it’s in the U.S. or in Europe, nobody can really say that it’s going great. Nobody can say things are really good and working. Obviously, people want change and I think the left is actually divided on the issue.
There are people within the left who vehemently oppose changes to the current system. But there is part of the left that says, actually, the way it’s going now is really not ideal, including for the very people crossing the border.
So for the left it’s difficult because they can’t even unanimously say it’s a problem. And if you can’t acknowledge the problem, how can you arrive at a solution that would be satisfactory for a majority of voters?
So Trump has to remind people that it’s Biden who has visited this problem on them and he’s just going to do more of the same. So why vote for him, right?
The left will never win on immigration.
We’ve talked about Trump’s vulnerabilities, but what are Biden’s vulnerabilities?
There is no doubt that it’s his age. Usually, one of the key advantages of an incumbent is that you are seen as legitimate for the job while the challenger has to prove he can do the job. Now, this is not really the case for Biden because of his age. And I’m not sure if he’s being told the truth by the people around him.
What about his policies? Surely they’re vulnerabilities for him?
Yes. If you look at the polling on almost every major issue — except, perhaps, abortion — voters trust Trump more than Biden by quite considerable margins.
So yes, I think there are policies that are vulnerable for him, including, of course, immigration. The economy might get better for him. But the key is really age. Because even if things get better economically, people might say, “Thank you. Great job, but now it is time for retirement.”
They both have legal troubles — Biden and his son Hunter and, of course, Trump. Who does it hurt more?
No doubt, it’s Trump. I think the legal problems for Biden are mostly something that is percolating in the right-wing media. I don’t really think it’s something people have heard about, believe or believe there is real substance there. I mean, it’s really the son, right? And even with the son, it’s really questionable if it’s going to fly, right?
There’s no doubt that this is much more of a concern for Trump because he is out on bail in four jurisdictions. And it may actually get back into the headlines, which is what he should try to avoid right now.
What can Trump do to keep that focus off his legal woes?
The thing he’s doing, which is trying to delay. It’s really all about timing so that people don’t get new information about it, because that’s really what would change public opinion. I think most voters have somehow factored all of this into their equation about Trump. Nothing there is shockingly new information. So what he’s really trying to do is not give people new information — for example, a guilty verdict.
What impact do you think Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent run will have on the election? Is he or a No Labels Party candidate a threat to either? And if so, which one?
I think the chances of a third-party candidate winning the Oval Office are close to zero. But I think Kennedy or a No Labels candidate would hurt Biden more because Trump just has a really enthusiastic base. I think it might shave enough from Biden for Trump to win. I think RFK could hurt Biden probably more than Trump. Trump has the most enthusiastic base of any politician worldwide.
Have you ever seen anything like the Trump phenomenon in America?
No, I have not seen something that’s parallel. I think for Trump it’s amazing to see how loyal his supporters are over time. Now, I think there is, however, more for him to do with the base. And I think it’s not so much about firing them up. They are fired up. The question is really to turn them out.
I think the key issue here is logistics and their turnout operation, because turnout operations are really moving from getting out of homes to take-home delivery of the vote. I think that was quite a game-changer for Trump four years ago. People who voted on Election Day overwhelmingly voted for Trump. People who voted early overwhelmingly voted for Biden. I think there is work to do there in adopting the turnout operation and really delivering the votes.
Note: Answers and questions from the video interview may have been edited and condensed to remove random utterances, such as pauses or filler words that are a part of speech, and for brevity and clarity.
