Could the Democrats carry out in 2024 what they said was a threat to American democracy in 2020?
Party leaders are not ruling it out. Democratic lawmakers told The Atlantic that if the Supreme Court does not rule on the issue of whether former President Donald Trump engaged in an insurrection, they may decide on their own that he did and refuse to certify his potential win.
You’ll recall how angered Democrats were in the lead-up to the Electoral College vote on Jan. 6, 2021, when Republicans said they planned to challenge the outcome of the presidential race in certain swing states after officials there unilaterally changed election rules and procedures, including those related to the use of unmanned ballot drop boxes.
Trump and other Republicans wanted a delay in certifying the vote at the federal level to allow state legislatures to take a closer look at allegations of fraud.
In the 2020 election, Trump had won 18 of the 19 bellwether counties that had accurately predicted who would be elected president going back to 1980.
Democrat Joe Biden was able to run up the score in places like Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania; Fulton County, Georgia; Wayne County, Michigan; Maricopa County, Arizona; and Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, enough to flip those swing states overall.
Republicans felt they had a basis to take a closer look at those places, and many Americans apparently shared their concerns.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll released in January 2022, a little over a year after the 2020 election, found only 20 percent of respondents said they were “very confident” in the integrity of the U.S. electoral system.
Another 39 percent said they were “somewhat confident,” 27 percent “not so confident,” and 14 percent “not confident at all.” So 80 percent of those surveyed had at least some level of concern about our elections.
Will Trump win the 2024 election?
Further, “as Republicans are fond of pointing out, Democrats have objected to the certification of each GOP presidential winner since 2000,” The Atlantic’s Russell Berman wrote.
“None of those challenges went anywhere, and they were all premised on disputing the outcome or legitimacy of the election itself. Contesting a presidential election by claiming that the winner is ineligible, however, has no precedent,” he added.
Democrats’ refusal to certify a 2024 Trump win would be based on lawmakers concluding that he is an insurrectionist and therefore ineligible under the 14th Amendment, which bars people who have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” from holding office.
Trump has not been charged with, much less convicted of, taking part in an insurrection, which is a violation of federal law.
Nonetheless, officials in three Democrat-led states so far — Colorado, Maine and Illinois — have decided he is an insurrectionist and therefore ineligible to appear on their ballots.
The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments this month on whether Colorado’s Supreme Court ruling barring Trump should stand. If SCOTUS upholds the ruling, many other states will likely follow Colorado’s lead.
The party that says they’re “defending democracy” sure has a weird way of showing it. pic.twitter.com/RorSEi5Ifw
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) February 29, 2024
Based on the questioning, even by liberal members of the court, it appears Colorado will not be able to keep Trump off the ballot. However, the grounds on which the justices choose to make their decision could make all the difference.
One direction the U.S. Supreme Court could go is punting the matter to Congress, determining that the Constitution left it up to the legislative branch to make the call and side-stepping the issue of whether Trump engaged in an insurrection.
Berman noted that if the court takes that route, it will put Democratic lawmakers looking for political cover in a tough place.
It will be the new Congress that votes on certifying the Electoral College in January 2025.
Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the House now, but it could easily flip back to Democratic control in November’s election. Democrats currently have a 51-49 working majority in the Senate, but face a tough election map in November. That said, it is possible they could keep the upper chamber.
Only a simple majority is needed to sustain an objection to certifying an Electoral College vote.
“In interviews, senior House Democrats would not commit to certifying a Trump win, saying they would do so only if the Supreme Court affirms his eligibility,” Berman wrote. For example, Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff and Eric Swalwell, both of California, took this view.
Asked what he would do if the court declines to answer the question of Trump’s eligibility, Schiff responded, “I don’t want to get into the chaos hypothetical.”
Former House Majority Whip Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina also demurred when asked how he would vote in such a scenario. The veteran lawmaker only said concerning Trump, “I think he’s an insurrectionist.”
Rep. Zoe Logren of California said that Trump is “clearly ineligible” and that she “might be” one who would vote not to certify him the winner of the 2024 election.
Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who would likely become speaker if Democrats take the House, did not respond to Berman’s inquiries.
National Review’s Dan McLaughlin wrote in response, “This is a grim picture. It reflects why the Supreme Court should reconsider if it is tempted to dispose of the [Colorado] case on one of the process grounds rather than on the basis of the coverage issues (whether Section 3 of the 14th Amendment covers the presidency and the presidential oath) or the merits issues (whether January 6 was an insurrection and whether Trump engaged in it).”
If the justices do rule in favor of Trump’s eligibility, McLaughlin predicted that Democratic lawmakers would “rage against the Court itself and brand its justices as corrupt MAGA toadies and whatnot, but they’d be glad to have the cover of somebody else deciding for them, rather than see D.C. filled once again with angry mobs on the day of the joint session.”
The Supreme Court’s decision could come at any time, given the expedited timeline it has followed since taking the case.
The New York Times highlighted that Colorado’s presidential primary takes place on Tuesday, and the ruling may well come before that.
