Well, it’s official: The NFL season is over.
Taylor Swift and her Kansas City Chiefs (I’ve heard rumors Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and some other individuals may have played a part in it, too) were champions of Super Bowl LVIII, winning 25-22 over the NFC champion San Francisco 49ers in overtime.
It was the Chiefs’ third championship and fourth appearance in the Super Bowl in five years, making them the first NFL dynasty that will ever be the subject of a breakup song.
So, naturally, you know what we football fanatics are doing now that the season’s officially done. We’re forgetting about the sport entirely, spending more time with our families, going to the gym a bit more often on Sundays, maybe joining the worship team at church.
Nah, just kidding. Well, we may be doing some of that. But the NFL draft is only two-and-a-half months away! And unlike most years where the top pick is pretty much locked in, there’s still drama at No. 1.
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Thanks to a trade last year with the Carolina Panthers, who finished with the league’s worst record, the Chicago Bears hold the No. 1 pick despite a respectable 7-10 record. Da Bears traded away the pick because they were still waffling on the future of quarterback Justin Fields, a former Ohio State star who was the No. 11 pick in the first round of the 2021 draft.
The top two picks were almost certain to be quarterbacks in 2023 — either Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.
Carolina traded up and picked Young in what looks like a disastrous decision.
Stroud, picked No. 2 by the Houston Texans, has blossomed into a star who led his relatively unpolished team to an unlikely divisional championship and playoff win.
Should the Bears keep Fields?
Young isn’t a bust yet, but his rookie year confirmed every negative in his game that scouts had identified before the 2023 draft (too short and frail, bad arm strength, forces passes) without displaying much of the positive (Young, whom Bleacher Report called an “electric playmaker” with a “creative mind” who “[e]xcels outside the pocket and in finding unique angles to finish plays” in its scouting report, was almost humorously immobile in Carolina’s offense and behaved so much like a deer in headlights that he got sacked by defenders more often than pre-Joe Torre Yankees managers got sacked by George Steinbrenner.)
This led to the Panthers finishing an NFL worst 2-15 — and, since they’d traded their first-round pick this year to Chicago to get Young, it means the Bears are atop the draft board again. Only this time, there’s a “generational talent” at quarterback available — University of Southern California signal-caller Caleb Williams, whose talent ceiling is being compared to QBs so legendary I don’t even need to mention their first names: Elway, Marino, Brees, Favre, Staubach, Namath, Montana, Rodgers, Unitas.
But there’s the rub: Fields progressed as Chicago’s starter in 2023. Yes, he still displayed red flags — a high sack percentage, questionable accuracy, tendency to get injured — but he solidified himself as a mobile playmaker who can start in the NFL and play at a high level.
That said, the Bears almost certainly won’t keep him as a backup and probably would need a team to resurrect and/or restore one of the Elway, Marino, Brees, etc., quarterbacks to peak playing condition through genetic engineering, then trade him to the Bears in order to get the rights to Caleb Williams.
So yeah, Williams is almost certainly being selected by the Bears — but the drama is where Fields will end up going. On Wednesday, Brent Sobleski of Bleacher Report came up with five teams that he thought had the best chance of landing Fields. (There’s a pun there, I just know it.)
Could one of these be the lucky — or unlucky, depending on how he progresses — beneficiary of the Bears’ sudden turn of having too much talent at the sport’s most important position? Let’s take a look:
No. 5: Seattle Seahawks
The resurgence of Geno Smith has been a wonderful story. Smith, a QB bust with the New York Jets (aren’t they all) after being drafted in 2013, spent years backing up other quarterbacks before finally getting a chance in Seattle in 2022 when Russell Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos. In spite of the fact most pundits thought he was a placeholder for a team that was deliberately tanking, Smith made the Pro Bowl in both of his seasons starting for Seattle and was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2022.
That being said, Smith may be a great story and a good signal-caller — and still a place-holder at the same time. While he’s a solid quarterback, the Seahawks are in a rebuilding mode; having finished 9-8 two consecutive seasons with only one playoff appearance to show for it, the franchise fired head coach Pete Carroll. At 33, Smith is a bit old to be the face of a rebuilding franchise.
The Seahawks have a good receiving corps, something Fields lacks in Chicago, and Sobleski has other arguments for Fields to go to the Pacific Northwest.
“With former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald taking Carroll’s position, the possibility of adding an athlete of Fields’ caliber to give a Lamar Jackson-like presence in the offense may be quite tempting,” he wrote. “In fact, Seattle can save $13.2 million by releasing Smith and acquiring Fields. Currently, the team is in the red regarding the 2024 salary cap.
“Clearly, the Seahawks don’t need to press the matter since they have an established starter. At the right price, every avenue should be considered. Seattle may consider trading down in the first and taking the extra assets acquired to finagle a deal for Fields.”
Yes, but … remember, the issue with Seattle’s 2022 and 2023 underperformance wasn’t quarterback. Instead, the team’s mediocrity lay in spotty depth in other areas, something draft assets would go a long way toward plugging. What do the Bears want to get Fields? Draft assets. You may begin to see the problem here.
The salary cap space and the fact that Smith likely won’t be the starter when and if the Seahawks become a serious contender due to his age make this ponderable move. Furthermore, a drop-back passer like Smith isn’t the style of quarterback a head coach coming from Lamar Jackson’s Ravens likely wants to build his team around, whereas the mobile Fields fits the bill perfectly. However, the opportunity cost for a team that needs to rebuild could make this a lose-lose for Fields and the Hawks.
No. 4: New England Patriots
Whelp, The Hoodie has officially left the building. For the first time since 1999, someone else but Bill Belichick will be coaching the Pats — and new head coach Jerod Mayo has obviously identified quarterback as an area that needs improvement, as current New England starter Mac Jones (another Alabama product) has been a dud thus far.
However, the Pats have a top-three draft pick — and while Williams is almost certainly No. 1, the next two picks could be quarterbacks of considerable talent.
Nevertheless, Dan Graziano of ESPN reported that “there are people around the league who believe they are open to trading the No. 3 selection, moving back in the draft and addressing the quarterback position in free agency,” leading Sobleski to believe they’re primed to enter the Fieldstakes.
“Granted, Fields isn’t a free agent, and the team must surrender a draft asset or two to get him,” he wrote. “But some internal belief may exist that the Patriots must be rebuilt and aren’t ready to compete at a high level in the near future — which they aren’t.”
The thought is that, with the No. 3 pick, Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. — the best non-quarterback on most 2024 draft boards — would go to the Pats, who then would send their second-round pick (No. 34 overall) to the Bears for Fields.
Of course, that’s if the Bears don’t get a better offer — and a lot depends on which quarterback gets picked second by the Washington Commanders or whoever they trade with. Louisiana State University’s Jayden Daniels is seen as having more upside but considerably less polish and more of a risk for failure at the pro level. University of North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, meanwhile, is seen as being a much safer bet.
If Daniels goes second, expect the Pats to pick Maye — at least according to the prognostication of Sports Illustrated, a publication that absolutely, positively did not use an AI bot to write its mock draft article. And even if SI did, it makes sense. Maye and Harrison are both pretty close to sure things, Fields … well, not necessarily, and QB needs trump the best WR in the draft any day of the week. Plus, opportunities for Fields to get injured will be plentiful with a New England team that needs more of a reboot than a rebuild after the Belichick era.
No. 3: Las Vegas Raiders
I have a theory: Every year, whatever sportswriter gets the Raiders beat files away a piece to publish the week after the Super Bowl: “How Will the Silver-and-Black Address Their Quarterback Controversy?” Then, after the team gets eliminated from playoff contention, he fills in a few of the specific details, adds a few theories, files it and takes some paid leave.
The franchise hasn’t had a rock-solid starting quarterback since Rich Gannon’s MVP season in 2002. Naturally, he spent the next two years mostly being injured, and various solutions attempted by the Davis family afterward didn’t work out.
Derek Carr had nine up-and-down seasons after being drafted in 2014. It turned out he wasn’t the problem, as he performed admirably enough with the New Orleans Saints after the Raiders let him go following the 2022 season.
Jimmy Garoppolo, acquired from the 49ers, was an unmitigated disaster/interception-creating machine, and rookie Aidan O’Connell was no great shakes, either, which is why the Raiders were out of the playoffs and picking in the top half of the first round again.
“Something big is necessary for the Raiders to pull off a move that ends with a top prospect. Less will be required to take a run at Fields,” Sobleski wrote. “The 13th overall pick is far too rich. Maybe a trade-down occurs. Or the Raiders throw in extra selections along with their second-round pick.”
This move, to my ears, makes the most practical — if not competitive — sense for three reasons:
1. Out of the top five teams that could land Fields, this makes the least sense.
2. The Raiders organization will always make whatever move makes the least sense.
3. Ergo, the Raiders will trade for Justin Fields.
On other draft boards, too, experts have the Raiders looking at Bo Nix of the University of Oregon and Michael Penix Jr. of the University of Washington. In Fields’ defense, those are prospects who spent more time in college, meaning Fields is scarcely older than them and has more experience at the NFL level. He also has more experience getting injured at the NFL level, which puts considerably more mileage on an athlete’s body — something to consider when passing over those prospects for a second-hand mobile quarterback.
That being said, Garoppolo’s cap number is too high to retain him as a quarterback, and O’Connell simply isn’t NFL starter material. However, the Raiders simply have too many issues that need to be addressed for this to make sense as a priority. Which is why it makes perfect sense to make it a priority. See where being run by the Davis family for over a half-century gets you?
No. 2: Atlanta Falcons
The NFC South perpetually stinks. A 10-7 record will usually be good enough to win it. The Atlanta Falcons have the kind of talent to be a 10-7 team — perhaps even better. They were 7-10 this year. Their one problem? Horrible quarterback play.
“Taylor Heinicke or Desmond Ridder can be retained as the team’s backup. But neither should start. Much like the Las Vegas Raiders, the Falcons sit too high in the first round (No. 8 overall) to trade a first-rounder to the Chicago Bears for Justin Fields, and they’re not high enough in the order to land one of the top three quarterbacks, unless one of those current squads aren’t sold on their options,” Sobleski wrote.
This makes perfect sense, right? The Falcons have a new coach, new offensive coordinator, a win-now team and a high second-round pick — which is about what most people think Fields’ value is. Furthermore, given the fact Atlanta has been mostly rudderless at quarterback since Matt Ryan’s departure, this should be peanut-butter-and-chocolate, right?
Unless, of course, you were a win-now team that would give up a first-round pick …
No. 1: Pittsburgh Steelers
In the draft where 49ers star quarterback Brock Purdy was the last player selected, the Steelers used the No. 20 pick in 2022 on the highest-drafted signal-caller in that class, Kenny Pickett, to replace the retiring Ben Roethlisberger. Plenty of franchises wish they had swapped out their picks — any of their picks — for Purdy, but perhaps none so much as Pittsburgh.
And, despite the fact that Pickett hasn’t officially become a bust yet, the writing is on the wall. Mason Rudolph, his backup, did a credible enough job to barely get the Steelers into the playoffs, where they promptly got bounced by the Buffalo Bills.
However, that means that — unlike the rest of the teams on this list — their first-round pick is at No. 20. “What are the Steelers seriously losing?” Sobleski asked about trading that pick for Fields, rhetorically. “A potential offensive lineman with that selection? Quarterback is far too important to waste away another season with subpar options.”
“More importantly, Fields isn’t a Band-Aid in this scenario,” he continued. “The Steelers are good enough each season not to be in the running for the top quarterback prospects. Yet the three-year veteran brings ample potential, with two more years on a rookie deal (including a fifth-year option) and the type of athleticism Pittsburgh hasn’t seen at the position since Kordell Stewart.”
However, therein lies the trap: The Steelers have been perpetually good enough to not be in the running for the top quarterback prospects for a long time, but not good enough to be championship contenders under the last few years of the Roethlisberger era. Their 10-7 season was only the second 10-win year for the Steelers since 2017, and the team hasn’t made it past its first playoff game since 2016.
The Steelers are in draft limbo: Not bad enough for great prospects, but not good enough that the team should be looking at a No. 20 pick as if it were disposable — particularly in a much more difficult division than the NFC South which will feature at least two championship contenders (Baltimore and Cincinnati) for the foreseeable future.
But Pittsburgh is the “City of Champions,” and its residents want a quarterback who isn’t named Kenny Pickett or Mason Rudolph. Brock Purdy is unavailable. Justin Fields may be the next-best thing.
There are other contenders for Fields beyond those five, of course. The Denver Broncos need a quarterback, but head coach Sean Payton has never been known to favor mobile signal-callers.
Aaron Rodgers will almost surely be healthy again for the New York Jets in 2024 — but how long he remains that way is anyone’s guess, and Fields would provide a roadmap to the future at the quarterback position for a franchise that hasn’t had one since time immemorial.
The Commanders seem to have their hearts set on one of the two highly touted quarterbacks not named Caleb Williams at draft pick No. 2, but trading back for a hoard of picks and getting Fields with a second-rounder — if he’s available for that — might be a sounder idea for a franchise perpetually in need of a rebuild.
Alas, much like the case for the Raiders acquiring Fields, the same principle applies to Washington: Take whatever football move makes sense, propose it to the Commanders brass, and they will do the diametrical opposite.
And while Carr has acquitted himself well-ish with the Saints, there’s no question that Fields has a higher ceiling than the perpetually good-but-not-great former Raiders quarterback.
That being said, the two teams that would probably benefit the most from Fields — in my take — would be the Falcons and the Jets. The former puts him in a position to succeed now with a team where the most notable talent hole is at QB. The latter, unmentioned by Sobleski, would give Fields a season or two to learn from Rodgers and (hopefully) not get himself injured, then take the field with a team of exciting young talent.
The most likely destinations? Sadly, probably Pittsburgh or Las Vegas. This isn’t to say that Fields wouldn’t succeed in Pittsburgh, only that the Steelers acquiring him with a No. 20 pick is a flashy Band-Aid plastered over what’s likely a much deeper wound than it appears, contra Sobleski.
And, as for the Raiders, Las Vegas has always been a city where logic goes to die. Fitting that’s where the Raiders ended up moving when they decamped from Oakland. Unfortunately, the Raiders are also a team where talent goes to die, and one fears Fields will get dumped on the heap with Garoppolo and other silver-and-black busts.
What we do know is, barring practically unimaginable circumstances, Caleb Williams will be the starting quarterback for the Bears next year.
As for Justin Fields, that’s anyone’s guess.
