With President Joe Biden’s approval rating reaching a new low this week and with former President Donald Trump consistently ahead of him in polls, the temptation for Democrats to replace their presumptive nominee will continue to grow.
And a name that consistently comes up is former first lady Michelle Obama.
Earlier this month, Obama weighed in on the presidential race saying, “What’s going to happen in this next election? I am terrified about what could possibly happen because our leaders matter.”
“Who we select, who speaks for us, who holds that bully pulpit, it effects us in ways that sometimes I think people take for granted,” she added.
“The fact that people think that government — ‘Eh, you know does it really even do anything?’ — and I’m like ‘Oh my God, does government do everything for us, and we cannot take this democracy for granted,’” Obama said. “And sometimes I worry that we do. Those are the things that keep me up.”
Is she worried enough to actually get in the race?
Former First Lady Michelle Obama says fears about the 2024 election are some of what keeps her up at night:
“What’s going to happen in this next election? I am terrified about what could possibly happen. Because our leaders matter.” pic.twitter.com/NcNZeyzP1G
— The Recount (@therecount) January 8, 2024
Most deadlines to file for primary races have already passed, but Obama would never run for the Democratic nomination against Biden anyway.
Do you think Michelle Obama will run for president?
The change would happen at the Democratic convention in August. It’s taking place in Obama’s hometown of Chicago, by the way.
The scenario would be that Biden announced at the end of the primary season or even during it that he is no longer a candidate for office.
President Lyndon Johnson did in March 1968 after barely eking out a first place finish in the New Hampshire Democratic primary.
Johnson’s approval rating at that point was 36 percent.
Biden’s approval rating currently is an all-time low for him of 33 percent, according to a ABC News/Ipsos poll published on Sunday.
Johnson linked his exit from the race in 1968 to his desire to focus on bringing the war in Vietnam to a peaceful conclusion.
Biden, the oldest man to ever hold the office, could easily justify not seeking a second term by saying he had come to realize that his age or health prevents him from continuing to shoulder the burdens of the presidency.
In the ABC News/Ipsos poll only 28 percent said they believe he has the mental sharpness to effectively serve as president versus 47 percent who said Trump does.
So Biden pulls the rip cord and parachutes out of the race before the Democratic convention, leaving it up to the delegates to choose their nominee.
It won’t be Vice President Kamala Harris, whose approval rating is close to Biden’s, hovering at about 37 percent, according to the political site FiveThirtyEight.
Who does that leave? California Gov. Gavin Newsom has certainly been trying to raise his national profile, but his state is facing a $68 billion deficit.
The latest polling also shows his approval rating is underwater in the Golden State, with 44 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving of his job performance as of November, an 11 percent decline from earlier in 2023.
Granted that’s better than Biden, but probably not what it would take to beat Trump.
By contrast, Obama’s favorable rating as she was preparing to leave the White House in 2016 was 72 percent, with just 22 percent viewing her unfavorably, according to the Pew Research Center.
A YouGov tracking poll in the spring of 2020 still had her holding steady at approximately 55 percent approval.
Those are winning approval numbers for a presidential bid.
Of course, as first lady, and certainly a former first lady, she has been able to stay largely above the political fray.
Once she entered the race and began taking positions on issues that impact people’s lives, she would likely lose some support.
Further, Obama has often stated that she hates politics, and one gets the sense that she really does.
So the day-to-day job of being the nation’s chief executive she would no doubt find distasteful. Her husband, former President Barack Obama, could help, but that still leaves a lot of the position — the meetings, the photo ops, the phone calls with national and world leaders, etc. — she would still have to fill.
“But enough of you know me by now. You know that I tell you exactly what I’m feeling, you know I hate politics. But you also know that I care about this nation.” — @MichelleObama pic.twitter.com/xlail2F0gi
— Mother Jones (@MotherJones) August 18, 2020
So what is the answer to the dilemma? Michelle Obama runs for office with someone like Newsom who actually wants to be president. They ride her popularity into the White House.
She serves a short time and then steps aside for whatever reason: health, family, needs of the hour …
Obama would lose some standing among the American people for not seeing the job through, but Democrats would feel like she did them a solid by keeping the dreaded Trump out of office.
Is it a likely scenario? Probably not, but it’s possible.
