When it comes to the 2024 presidential election, there are a lot of “what ifs.”
What if Donald Trump is found guilty on one or some of the left’s trumped-up indictments? What if Joe Biden drops out because he no longer knows where he is or his party deems him unelectable? What if Trump or Biden keels over from a heart attack? What if?
For a clue, you can take a look at the polls — snapshots in time that can change at the drop of a scandal. Things always change, but they’re better than nothing.
Michigan is a crucial swing state. In the last four presidential elections, whoever won Michigan won the White House.
As of Tuesday, Trump had a whopping 8-point lead in the state, according to a poll commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV.
2024 Michigan GE:
Trump 47% (+8)
Biden 39%
.
Trump 42% (+11)
Biden 31%
Stein (G) 6%
Manchin (NL) 4%
Mapstead (L) 1%Glengariff Group/@detroitnews/@Local4News, 600 LV, 1/2-6https://t.co/J5fyCveHlp
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 9, 2024
In the survey of 600 likely general election voters, 47 percent said they were in for Trump, while 39 percent opted for Biden. That’s big, even with a margin of error of +/- 4 points.
A mere 600 people in a state with a population of over 10 million may seem like a grain of sand in the Sahara Desert — and it is — but most politicians are addicted to polls like wolves to red meat.
Do you think Michigan will go red in 2024?
“If I were a Democrat in Michigan,” said Richard Czuba, founder of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which conducted the poll, “I would be breaking the emergency fire alarms in the White House and demanding to know what the plan is for Michigan.”
“Because these numbers are very bad for any incumbent of any party.”
I don’t know what Czuba’s politics are, but that’s like dangling a bloody beef backstrap in front of a starving wolf trapped in a cage. The Biden camp may wave it off in public as just another poll, but it has to have them worried — very worried — behind closed doors.
The poll found only 17 percent believe Biden deserves another term as president. That’s the lowest for any major public officeholder in modern Michigan political history, Czuba said.
Even worse for Biden, Trump’s lead soared to as much as 12 points when the poll respondents were given a list of third-party candidates. With the 4-point margin of error, that could mean a possible 16-point lead for Trump.
Trump is way ahead in the Republican primary, with a 50-point national lead over Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, who are running neck and neck, according to Real Clear Polling. In Michigan, Trump has a 48-point lead over DeSantis, his closest contender there.
Bennario Chapman, a 29-year-old independent from Muskegon who participated in the poll, may prove to be Michigan’s Cindy Lou Who (of Dr. Seuss fame) shouting up from that grain of sand in the desert.
Chapman supports Democratic Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer but would vote for Trump over Biden, The Detroit News reported.
Trump, Chapman said, “is who he is. And that’s who he’s going to be. I can expect Trump to be Trump. … And I can go for somebody who stands in their own truth. Biden is not that.”
One X user summed it up nicely: “Most Michiganders are fed up with the state of the economy and this joke of an administration’s disdain for everyday Americans.” That pretty much says it all.
Michigan’s most accurate pollster of 2022, which had Whitmer winning by 9 points, has Donald Trump defeating Joe Biden by 8 this November.
Most Michiganders are fed up with the state of the economy and this joke of an administration’s disdain for everyday Americans. pic.twitter.com/s2seXJ8O19
— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) January 9, 2024
Barring a “what if,” Trump looks to be cruising to victory in Michigan after losing the state in 2020 by less than 3 points.
I wonder if a single grain of sand in the Sahara can cause a s*** storm in the Democratic camp. You have to believe a lot of lefties are thinking about who they might run in place of old Joe if they hope to weather the storm.
