It’s been a very long time since any Republican thought they could win New York — almost half a century.
The last time the state went red in a presidential election was when former President Ronald Reagan won it in 1980.
In 2020, President Joe Biden won the Big Apple State with close to 61 percent of the vote, according to CNN.
But a lot has changed since 2020, and former President Donald Trump believes he has a chance to do what Reagan did — win New York.
Trump discussed the idea during a recent visit to New York while speaking with Gavin Wax, president of the New York Young Republicans group. According to Wax, Trump spoke positively about holding an event in the predominantly black and Hispanic neighborhood, according to the New York Post.
“We’re going to take New York,” Trump said at the dinner as the people cheered. “I believe we have a great chance … With hundreds of thousands of people living on the sidewalks and streets and illegal aliens invading our city and state like nobody thought possible.”
Trump was referring to the migrant crisis in New York, which has led the city to effectively end its decades of “right to shelter,” which guaranteed a shelter bed to anyone seeking one, according to The City.
With over 65,000 migrants now in the city’s shelter system, the right is no longer sustainable.
Migrants’ care is also forcing budget cuts to key services in New York City.
Should Trump hold a rally in South Bronx?
New York Mayor Eric Adams said that New Yorkers “are p***ed off” recently when confronted on the crisis, though he insists he lacks authority to halt new migrant arrivals.
Trump’s support among minority voters has also risen sharply since 2020.
Biden’s edge with Hispanics shrank from 14 percent to just 3 percent, an 11-point drop. Among African Americans, his lead declined 15 points to 47 percent, according to a new Emerson College poll.
In contrast, Trump’s black voter support specifically now stands at 22 percent, up substantially from 8 percent in 2020 per the polls, according to The New York Post.
The growing openness to alternatives, combined with blue-collar shifts rightward, led to the GOP capturing a Bronx congressional seat this year for the first time in 50 years when Kristy Marmorato flipped a longtime blue seat to red, according to CBS News.
If pursued, Trump’s rally would likely happen after the 2024 Republican primary, which Trump is expected to win handily. Wax said the idea was inspired by Reagan’s 1980 visit to the South Bronx while campaigning before winning New York in that election.
After decades of Republican futility, Trump believes rising crime, economic turmoil, and shifting political winds have made winning New York possible in 2024. The crises consuming New York City have left many lifelong Democrats disillusioned and searching for new answers.
For Trump, the stage seems set for the Empire State to turn red for the first time since Reagan’s victory — with disenchanted base voters, swing demographic shifts, and intensifying urban disorder pointing to a rare Republican opening.
The perfect storm appears brewing for him to compete strongly where the party has not for decades.
