It’s the one midterm narrative the mainstream media outlets love.
NBC News, Aug. 30: “Here are the signs Republicans’ hopes for a ‘red wave’ are receding ahead of the 2022 elections.” The Associated Press, Sept. 6: “Red wave crashing? GOP momentum slips as fall sprint begins.” Bloomberg, Sept. 8: “GOP Is on the Defense as Chances of a ‘Red Wave’ Fade.”
You know the talking points: Biden got his preposterously named “Inflation Reduction Act” passed, Donald Trump-backed GOP candidates were struggling in the polls in several key states and the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade had thrown the midterm deck up in the air.
Not so fast, according to ABC News senior national correspondent Terry Moran. Appearing on the network’s “This Week” on Sunday, Moran acknowledged abortion had changed the landscape a bit, but the underlying facts that were driving the “red wave” in the first place? They’re still there.
Host Martha Raddatz noted that with “less than a month to go … Democrats were feeling pretty hopeful about their chances. Do you still get that sense?”
Trending:
“No, I think the air went out of that balloon,” Moran said.
“Polls are broken… So you look at those polls, if it’s close it’s a Republican win.”
ABC’s Terry Moran poured cold water over the rest of the leftist pundits’ hopes about Democrats’ chances in the midterms. pic.twitter.com/bY8Il4auZg
— MRCTV (@mrctv) October 10, 2022
“Look, the economy is so tough for so many people,” he said. “Food prices, rent spiking, if [voters have] got retirement funds, those are evaporating.”
Do you expect a Republican takeover of Congress in the midterm elections?
He went on to say that “even the issue of abortion — which did drive several special elections and that remarkable referendum result in Kansas — while there are millions for whom that will be the number one issue, I just think the economic headwinds are so tough.”
That’s complicated by the captain of the ship, of course: President Joe Biden.
“Biden is — he just doesn’t have the oomph as a candidate anymore,” Moran said. “People don’t really want him around and he can’t really make his case. I don’t think the Democrats are in any better place.”
And as for those polling numbers, Moran also had a sobering observation the Democrats ought to have learned in the six years since the 2016 presidential election.
“And I would also say that in this country and in other countries, polls are broken, right?” Moran said.
“It is clear that lots of people on the right just don’t answer anymore. They were worse in 2020 than they were in 2016. And so you look at those polls, it’s close. If it’s close, it’s a Republican win.”
Yes, let’s talk about those polls for a second — specifically in the Senate. Politico identified 10 races to watch closely. In seven of those races, the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator found Joe Biden had a lead in 2016. (There was no average for the other three states.)
In only one of those states — Georgia — Biden performed exactly as the polling average predicted, with a 0.3 percent win over then-President Trump. In every other swing state, the polls indicated more support for the Democrat than he actually got, sometimes dramatically so.
In Nevada, Republicans are looking to pick up a Senate seat, with Adam Laxalt ahead of Democrat incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by 2.1 points, according to the RCP polling average. In 2020, the average had Biden up by 5.3 percent in the state; he won by 2.7 percent, roughly half that margin.
In North Carolina, Republican Ted Budd is narrowly up over Democrat Cheri Beasley with an RCP average of 1.5 points. However, the RCP average showed Biden up by 0.6 percent in 2020; he lost by 1.3 percent to Trump.
Beyond broken polls, the fundamentals that set up the potential “red wave” phenomenon are still in place. Not only does the opposition party usually clean up during the midterms, inflation remained high at 8.3 percent in August. Easing gas prices could bounce back up now that OPEC+ has announced it’s cutting production, despite entreaties from the Biden administration to keep the spigot flowing.
As for the president himself? “Doesn’t have the oomph” is a charitable way of phrasing it:
Joe Biden: “There’s a lot more Republicans out there taking credit for the new bridges and the bldhyindclapding than actually voted for it.” pic.twitter.com/8p2bXtVwU1
— Real Mac Report (@RealMacReport) September 23, 2022
PROMPTER: “Do you know how much we Reduced the deficit this year?”
BIDEN:“Do you know how much Rededudenedefet this year?”
pic.twitter.com/AjUu0RRNvg— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 5, 2022
Joe Biden, the same guy that said J-O-B-S was a three-letter word pic.twitter.com/vyzXsEFrDH
— Charlie Spiering (@charliespiering) October 7, 2022
The air may be out of the balloon, but it never should have been in there in the first place.
Legislative victories are temporary and tend to look less rosy when the opposition has a chance to pick apart their flaws.
Abortion is being overhyped by a mainstream media desperate to turn the midterms into a referendum on Roe v. Wade.
Even if some GOP senatorial candidates underperform, they likely won’t underperform to the extent our broken polling system indicates they will.
Meanwhile, Americans are seeing more and more of their paycheck disappear, being spent on less and less each time they go to the store or fill up at the pump. And they’re seeing an administration that doesn’t care being enabled by a Democrat Congress indulging its whims — and driving its agenda.
Those bedrock realities are practically unchanged, and those are the things that are likely to get voters to check a box in the booth on Election Day.
The crashing red wave may be the one midterm narrative the mainstream media outlets love to report on. If only it were true.
