This story is exclusive content for subscribers of The Western Journal.
In many Latino households, the father is in charge. One of his most important duties is the passing down of tradition, ensuring that the family values and cultural norms carry on into future generations.
A 1997 study on Latino families found the father is responsible for ensuring children “practice and explore” Latino values and “perpetuate the customs and traditions into the next generation.”
One such tradition successfully preserved in many Latino households is the act of voting Democrat.
For years, Latino voters in the United States have voted this way, election after election.
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Then came President Donald Trump.
An analysis of the 2020 election conducted by The Wall Street Journal found the median “heavily Latin neighborhood” shifted 7.2 points toward Trump in his re-election campaign compared with 2016. In some Latino neighborhoods, support for Trump increased by a whopping 20 points.
As the November midterm elections grow closer, one question remains at the forefront of Republicans’ and Democrats’ minds — will this trend continue?
At least one pollster believes it will. In fact, according to him, a deeper look at the poll data reveals a “generationally devastating” trend for Democrats.
Will there be a “red wave” in November?
“I haven’t seen an issue in 18 months where Hispanics aren’t swinging to the right. Not an issue,” Mark Meckler told The Western Journal in August.
As president of the Convention of States Action, Meckler regularly works alongside the Trafalgar Group, one of the most accurate pollsters in the country, according to a FiveThirtyEight ranking.
Just prior to speaking with The Western Journal, Meckler’s group released a poll regarding the FBI’s Aug. 8 raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property in Palm Beach, Florida. The poll found Latino likely voters to be in relative lockstep with Republicans — 69.9 percent of them said they believed “Trump’s political enemies” were behind the FBI raid, and 80 percent reported being more likely to vote in the November election following the incident.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be a surprise that those of Latino descent would look unfavorably on the raid of a former president’s home. Many such individuals came from countries such as Cuba, Venezuela and Mexico where federal authorities are often used to target political opponents.
However, Meckler said this rightward shift in the Latino community extends far beyond the Mar-a-Lago raid.
It would be one thing, he explained, if Hispanics were simply sour on President Joe Biden. In such a scenario, Democrats could conceivably recover their votes in future elections.
In general, Latinos aren’t fond of Biden. Polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group in recent months found 60.6 percent of those surveyed viewed the president as the leading contributor to inflation, and a majority of Latinos believe it is “very likely” or “somewhat likely” that Biden has been compromised by his family’s business dealings with China.
But Latino voters don’t just have a Joe Biden problem. The growing rift between Democrats and those communities goes much deeper than one politician.
For example, recent Trafalgar Group polls also found that 66.7 percent of Latinos reported the congressional committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol incursion hadn’t impacted their voting decisions and 62.5 percent said they believe “federal bureaucracies in Washington DC” have “grown too large and only serve their own political interests.”
“If Hispanics decide that on all of the issues they no longer identify with Democrats, which is what I’ve been seeing over the last 18 months, that is generationally devastating for the Democratic Party,” Meckler told The Western Journal. “And I think that’s what we’re looking at here.”
Indeed, over the past several months, polling from Meckler’s group shows Latinos leaning to the right on all of the most hot-button political and cultural issues. This includes polls on abortion, mass shootings, climate change and COVID-19.
Perhaps most surprising to Democrats is the Latino community’s stance on illegal immigration. In April, 65.2 percent of Hispanics surveyed — a larger share than whites, blacks or Asians — said Biden should close the southern border until a solution to “the ongoing immigration crisis” is reached.
With the widening gap between Democrats and Latinos, one question becomes apparent: How have Democrats held the Hispanic vote for so long?
Through his work, Meckler has met with many Latino communities over the years, and he believes the answer is rather simple.
It isn’t because Latino values align with the party’s values or policy positions. Rather, he said, they were simply following the tradition handed down by their fathers.
“In the Latin culture, it tends to be patriarchal families … ‘Dad voted Democrat his whole life, so we vote Democrat,’ and that’s the way the families work,” Meckler explained.
As the Democratic Party continues to dive headfirst toward the cultural extremes of race essentialism in public schools, drag shows for children and on-demand abortion up until birth (to name only a few examples), a growing number of Latino families will re-examine those voting traditions. They’ll break the cycle by voting Republican.
“If you break the cycle, that’s a permanent break,” Meckler said.
