Republican candidates are poised to do significantly better with minority voters in the upcoming midterm elections than they have in the past.
A New York Times/Sienna College survey of registered voters conducted this month found support among Hispanics nearly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans — 41 percent to 38 percent — with 21 percent remaining undecided.
Among other minorities — excluding African-Americans, who still strongly favor Democrats — the GOP holds a 39 percent to 34 percent advantage.
By way of comparison, in the 2018 midterms Democrats received 72 percent of the Hispanic vote to 25 percent for Republicans, a 47 percentage point advantage, according to the Pew Research Center. Similarly, the Democrats’ lead among other minorities in 2018, again excluding blacks, was 63 percent to 33 percent.
The Wall Street Journal reported in March that the GOP has also made gains among African-Americans heading into the upcoming midterms.
In the Journal’s polling, black support for Republican candidates rose to 27 percent, up from 12 percent in November. In 2018, blacks supported Democratic candidates over GOP ones 92 percent to 6 percent, according to Pew.
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CNN’s Harry Enten placed the surge of minority support for the Republican Party in further historical context.
He pointed to the Times survey showing Democrats trailing the GOP among white voters by 10 percentage points and winning with minorities by 25 percent.
Will minorities continue shifting right?
“A 35-point racial gap is minuscule by historical standards,” Enten explained.
He examined polling data from CNN/SSRS, Fox News, Marist College, Monmouth University and the Times.
“The average showed Democrats up by 30 points among voters of color and losing White voters by 14 points — a somewhat larger 44-point racial gap but still historically small. In fact, it’s the smallest divide this century,” Enten wrote.
“The previous low watermark for the Democratic edge among voters of color in House elections this century was 40 points in 2004,” Enten noted. “Republicans are currently doing 10 points better than their best year of 2004.”
The Cook Political Report shows the Republican Party likely to pick up about 215 seats in the House to the Democrats’ 186 seats, with 34 listed as “toss-up.” A party needs 218 seats to control the House.
In an opinion piece for The Hill in March, Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel wrote, “For generations, Democrats thought they had a monopoly on minority voters. But now, Democrats’ failed promises, polarizing agenda and rising prices are catching up with them.”
“Republicans are committed to enacting policies that will lift all Americans from every background,” she added. “Come November, Democrats will be in for a rude awakening.”
A version of this article originally appeared on Patriot Project.
